Another week is behind us and that only means one thing, Payney's Punt can be let loose on the form guides.
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Last week, everyone here at Payney's Punt learned you don't have to be dead to be stiff.
Fair dinkum. For every multi that went down by one leg last week we would have enough spare change to retire from the game.
But unfortunately for us — and our readers — we are back again, this time to delve into Saturday's nine-race card at Moonee Valley.
Punters can expect Mother Nature to unleash upwards of 40mm of farmers relief between now and when the first race jumps.
Expect the track to be in the Soft 7 to Heavy 8 range, while the rail will be in its true position.
Last time out at the Valley, winners opted to come wide, so keep that in mind.
And if you are dipping into the pockets this weekend, set a limit, don’t reach too deep and please remember to gamble responsibly.
Race 1. 12.30pm — Super Vobis (1500m)
The opener maps to have plenty of early speed, with Sealion (4), Sandy Prince (3) and Benczkowski (5) all taking up the front running. Sandy Prince is the one we are leaning on here. Has won back-to-back on heavy and soft going. Kicked to the line last time over 1400m and won with ease in front of Sealion. Saint Tropez (7) did its best work late in that same race to finish third and the extra 100m may suit. Looks a tasty each-way proposition. Rock Artist (2) has wet weather form and should race on the speed. Sunfall (1) will get a nice run on the early tempo and is a wet track specialist.
Top tip: Sandy Prince
Race 2. 1.05pm — BM78 (1600m)
The speed won't be as quick in this, but there does shape to be plenty of runners that like to sit on the speed. It looks like Ben and JD Hayes have landed a good sort with Mr Brightside (8). The Lindsay Park runner is on the hunt for four straight. Two wins have come at this trip, while two have been in the wet. Craig Williams has steered all three wins. Chief Altony (3) has drawn wide, but is one to watch. Can handle the wet ground and is yet to finish outside of the placings at the mile.
Top tip: Mr Brightside
Race 3. 1.40pm — 3-Y-O Plate (1200m)
Expect 12, 6, 2 and 13 to work forward in a fast race. Generation (2) is gathering plenty of love from punters. Finished third when fresh last start in the Vain Stakes and should be fitter here. Has placed and won in each of his three starts. Taunting (6) won a recent trial and returns after an eight-week break. Has great form in the wet. Bifrost (13) just broke its maiden tag, but the runner-up in that race went on to win at its next start by 2.5 lengths. Athelric (5) gets the blinkers off for the first time and is drawn to get a nice run. Ran second here last start when fresh over 1200m in the McKenzie Stakes.
Top tip: Athelric EW
Race 4. 2.15pm — Hcp (2040m)
Looks like 1, 11 and 4 will take up front running. Degraves (9) will handle the wet ground. Peaked late when fresh over 1500m and the rise in trip will suit. Heart Of Puissance (8) is a great runner in the wet. Seems to have floaties strapped to him the way he floats over the top on heavy ground. Returns to the races here, but is coming off a trial win on heavy ground. Is 3:1-0-1 when fresh. Dr Drill (2) drops back to 2000m and the weight claim is a big help. Gave them too much of a head start at his latest start, but worked home late. Will sit on the pace in a nice position. Expect Coolth (12) and Pancho (5) to be fighting it out at the end. Finished first and second in past two starts which were at this track/distance.
Top tip: Dr Drill EW
Race 5. 2.50pm — Mitty's McEwen Stakes (1000m)
We see the return of two gun types in September Run (8) and Portland Sky (3). Expect those G1 winners to give the other seven runners a bit of space up front. September Run is 4:1-1-0 when fresh, while Portland Sky has one win when resuming. September Run is our pick out of the pair. Esta La Roca (9) could surprise here. Has an excellent record over this trip and has multiple wins around the Valley. Should find the front running. There may be better runners in this race, but we like to live dangerously.
Top tip: Esta La Roca EW
Race 6. 3.30pm — Atlantic Jewel Stakes (1200m)
Early speed to come from out wide with 12 and 10 to push forward. Argentia (8) went straight into our black book after the filly's impressive win on debut. No surprise to see the favourite tag tossed her way. Scorched Earth (3) will jump beside her and is coming off a narrow loss over 1100m. Has won at this track/distance before which came second-up. That is the same stage of her prep here. La Rocque (2) came on strongly when fresh and will be there abouts. Don't count out backmarkers Zouzzarella (7) and Mac ‘N’ Cheese (4) from fighting it out late.
Top tip: Scorched Earth
Race 7. 4.10pm — Chautauqua Stakes (1200m)
It's a shame there are no greys running in this Listed race named after Chautauqua. It's nice to have the Grey Flash honoured this way. Don't expect any of them to be able to replicate his signature turn of foot. Plenty will roll forward to find the lead, with Ancestry (6), Pintoff (11) and Away Game (7) pushing up. Ancestry has a stellar second-up record (4:3-0-0) and is undefeated at this track/distance. Will burn gas early from barrier 15. We don't hate Great Again (8) as a roughie. Linda Meech had a ripping return to metro racing and the Lindsay Smih-trained gelding is drawn to find the front. Aysar (4) will jump beside him and the Lindsay Park runner performs strongly second-up.
Top tip: Ancestry
Race 8. 4.50pm — Feehan Stakes (1600m)
There should be plenty pushing forward in the feature race. Streets Of Avalon (2) looks to lead from Sovereign Award (12), while Elephant (11) and Shot Of Irish (8) take up a position behind them. Elephant is unbeaten from five attempts, but faces a steep rise in class here. We love the wet track form on Shot Of Irish and the gelding is great when third-up. First crack at this grade, but it's got plenty of fitness on the others. How about the run by Sovereign Award last start? We backed the mare in only to watch Damian Lane open up a five-length gap on second then get swallowed up by the bend. It was a hard watch, but we will have something on her again at juicy odds. Has six wins over the mile and four at this track. Watch the market on Lindsay Park's Port Guillaume (10). It's having its first run Down Under and its undefeated when fresh. Also has three wins in the wet. Sierra Sue (14) was racing superbly before a foot issue kept the mare out of the Memsie Stakes last week. Wide open this.
Top tip: Shot Of Irish EW
Race 9. 5.25pm — Hcp (1600m)
All eyes will be on Skyman (3) and Viral (4) after the pair took out the quinella last start at this track over 1500m. Viral got the chocolates that day, but we expect Skyman to return favour here. Chased hard only to just miss out and the extra 100m is a big tick. Has three wins from six attempts at this distance. The wide barrier is a concern. Hi Stranger (2) should run a big race. The weight claim is a bonus. Has won past two over the mile and one of them came at this track on wet ground. Winning Partner (6) stormed home in that race Viral won. Will be fitter here and will need a touch of luck from barrier six, but here's hoping Damian Lane can get the job done.
Top tip: Winning Partner
Best of the Day
Where: Moonee Valley
When: Tomorrow
Race 2: 8 Mr Brightside
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