Welcome back to another edition of Payney's Punt with a preview of today's races at Seymour.
We have gone back to our roots (maiden races at country level) and we can't wait to get stuck into what should be a great day at the Goulburn Valley-based racetrack.
The course should be in ripper condition and recent rain will leave the track a Soft 6 or 7 and the rail will be out 3 m.
If you are looking at dipping into the pockets today, please make sure you gamble responsibly.
Race 1. 12.30 pm — Maiden Plate (2015 m)
A difficult race to analyse greets us in the first maiden of the day. Just the four hopefuls have raced at this distance and only five runners have placed in their career, with Kwahadi (5) the most successful with three placings from eight attempts. Kwahadi comes in with plenty of recent form, finishing third at Cranbourne two starts ago over 1600 m. Short ‘n’ Regal (11) looks to do her best at this stage of the preparation, with two placings from three attempts when third-up. Expected to sit on the speed and has placed on soft footing before.
Top tip: Kwahadi
Race 2. 1 pm — Maiden Plate (1300 m)
The second maiden of the day isn't riddled with landmines and looks much easier for punters. Expect Verra (12) to get a good run from barrier four and lead. Expect Jana (10) and Sacred Tycoon (6) close behind, with the former back after a 20-week spell. Sacred Tycoon finds the easy run from barrier one and worked home well last start over 1200 m. Hillcrest Moses (3) flashed home to finish midfield over 1105 m and should relish the extra furlong here. Include in exotics and check for placing price. Watch the market on Mick Price-trained Terrace House (7), the debut runner is by champion sire Snitzel. Won a recent jump out at Caulfield and has the pedigree to win on debut. Will be racing with the blinkers on.
Top tip: Hillcrest Moses
Race 3. 1.30 pm — Maiden Plate (1200 m)
The last of the maiden races has two runners on debut and not a great deal of form to work with. Might have to retire from the caper if we tip the winner here. Galactus (4) has been in the placings twice from five attempts this prep, but faded to ninth last start after having the lead in the final furlong. The James Cummings-trained Altimeter (1) has plenty of trial experience, but an unfavourable barrier may hinder his chances. Would need to use a fair few gas tickets to work across in his debut race. Watch for the market movers.
Top tip: Galactus
Race 4. 2 pm — BM58 (1600 m)
Out to the mile here and expect a tight finish with two big chances going at it. Rivarlo (3) won last start on soft ground over 1500 m, finishing strongly in the final furlong. One horse has gone on to win from that race. Is untried at this distance. Punters have looked for Melarita (8), with the Maher and Eustace-trained mare coming off a win last start over 1500 m to break her maiden. That win came when first-up and the four-year-old has placed twice when second-up. Has to overcome a wide barrier, but her performance last start and 2:0-1-1 record at this distance means she gets the job done. And Queen Guinevere (10) has won at Seymour at this distance before, also goes well when second-up.
Top tip: Melarita
Race 5. 2.30 pm — BM58 (1411 m)
Not a lot of confidence, but going with Oneria (7) here, with the four-year-old mare dropping back in class after a couple of runs in Melbourne. Forgive last start on a Heavy 10, won three runs back at this level. There are two Lindsay Park runners returning from spells in this race, Classic Fastnet (1) and Zorro Macho (2). The latter won first-up in previous preparation and drops back down in class. The former returns after 18 weeks and currently holds a 5:1-1-0 record. Drops down in grade and will be settling behind the pack. Savvy Shields (4) has really struggled recently, but has a great record on soft ground and gets the inside draw. Bit of value in Linc Sullivan's Tivoli Lass (11), the only win has come at this stage of her prep and drops in weight from last run.
Top tip: Oneira
Race 6. 3 pm — BM58 (1411 m)
Expect to see Lunar Flare (8) set a slow pace, in a race that is dominated by a runner making its Australian debut. Grand De Flora (3) should do well first-up here, won on debut in New Zealand. That race was on soft footing and should ping from midfield. One for exotics is Port Triano (11), has won twice at this distance from five attempts and has an 8:1-3-1 record on soft ground. Placed at long odds last start.
Top tip: Grand De Flora
Race 7. 3.30 pm — BM58 (1200 m)
A good betting race for punters. Beguilement (10) must overcome barrier 16, but won by five lengths last start at this distance and on soft ground. Gunn Island (4) has a strong record on soft ground, must respect with Brad Rawiller on board. Everywhere Mann (16) has won twice from four starts on soft ground and has two placings at this track. Won last start on soft ground. Is worth thought at value. And Fighting Shadow (13) is 3:1-2-0 at Seymour and is coming off a great run at Wangaratta. Drops in weight here.
Top tip: Everywhere Mann (EW)
Race 8. 4 pm — BM58 (1100 m)
Liking the look of this race, expect forward showing from Lady Day (5) and Punk Princess (1) from the outside barriers. The latter broke through for a maiden win last start, but goes up in weight. Fortunate Lady (9) placed last start on soft ground and is third-up here, won at this stage of her prep last time. Expect a strong showing at value. Favourite Smokin’ Salmon (2) placed last start and won three runs back. Was a good return to this grade. Respect.
Top tip: Fortunate Lady (Place)
Race 9. 4.30 pm — BM58 (1000 m)
It's another value race in the last, with a few hopefuls capable of grabbing the W. Sally Sells Shells (9) will set a fast tempo from the front, if it rains today, back her in. Has a terrific record in the wet and pings first-up, placing three times from four attempts. Beautiful Bee (5) is freshened and has placed twice this prep from five runs. Miss Smarty Pants (10) won at wide odds last start at this distance and retains Dylan Dunn in the saddle from that win. Has drawn the inside barrier and has performed well second-up.
Top tip: Sally Sells Shells
Best of the Day
Race 4: Melarita (11)