After speaking with the region's football and netball league head honchos this week, this is how Outside The Box reads the current state of the coronavirus crisis — they're completely determined to put some form of a season on, but even they do not know how this will happen, or what it would look like.
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May 11 is the date circled on all calendars, the date Victoria's state of emergency restrictions will theoretically begin to be eased — but what the leagues need more than anything is some sort of timeline as to when certain activities will be allowed to recommence.
One fact consistent across all leagues — in the region, if not the state — is without crowds, football and netball will not happen.
It would appear to be highly unlikely mass gatherings — of which sporting events would meet the definition — will be allowed at this time, and perhaps not for some time after that, making the next step particularly intriguing.
If there is, for example, no date for when a large group of athletes would be allowed to meet and train together, and no time frame on when crowds would be permitted, planning for a season becomes basically impossible.
Currently, AFL Victoria's managed and operated leagues have been postponed until May 31, with independently governed leagues strongly recommended to do the same — making a Queen's Birthday weekend (June 6) start the best case scenario.
If that happened — and all leagues could negotiate use of grounds with cricket clubs through October — all four district leagues would be able to play a revised fixture where each club plays every other once before a standard four-week finals series (perhaps five in the Picola league) and complete the season.
But is a June 6 start likely? Certainly not, with leagues strong in their belief matches could not go ahead without crowds.
If things were delayed another month for a July 4 start, there would be a 17-week window before October 31, seemingly the latest date football will have access to grounds shared with cricket clubs.
The GVL, MFNL and PDFNL could all squeeze into that space with each club playing the others once, although with the KDL having 15 teams plus a four-week finals system, it would have to begin making changes.
We note all this to try and paint a clear picture for just how affected the season is likely going to be — and this is still assuming crowds will in fact be permitted by a time when starting a season is still realistic.
If a start is any later than July 4, you're then into the realm of a season where sides don't all play each other, with things like conferences certainly on the table should this eventuate.
But do clubs, players and fans want this? What would it all mean if you won a premiership this season?
And if we're not even starting a season until mid-July, again we ask, do the people involved really want this?
Too many questions remain unanswered at this time — what restrictions will be eased at May 11?; will groups of 30 to 40 athletes be allowed to train together?; what level of crowds will be allowed at first?; will cricket clubs be accommodating regarding a late start?
If there's a gathering limit of 100 or 200 people, would running different matches in different sessions and emptying the ground after each match to ensure that limit is not passed work?
Would Picola league boss Shane Railton's thought of segregating home and away fans help meet government regulations?
We don't doubt the leagues’ determination to have a season be played, but realistically that determination means little if government restrictions aren't lifted in a reasonably dramatic way — remember, we're in a state so hell-bent on a conservative approach to stopping the curve our government hasn't even budged on its golf ban.
Sport is vital to country communities and football and netball clubs are clearly often the heartbeat of a town, providing a brilliant support network for the individuals involved as well as a genuine identity for those who support it.
But, as much as it is tough to stomach, sport is an insignificant blip on the radar compared to the global pandemic that is being faced.
If appropriate, controlled circumstances can't be found, missing an entire season is far from the end of the world.
