Outside The Box: Melbourne Cup punting competition

It means he leads the competition after one day with a $60 profit, joined in the black by fellow sub-editor Ashleigh Williamson, who found Fierce Impact at $7, his only winner of the day generating a $40 overall profit.

For the News sports journalists, the opening day left a little to be desired; yours truly had a decent collect on Melody Belle yet still ended the day down $37.50, Aydin Payne lost two wagers and got his money back on a third, while skipper Tyler Maher is singing for his supper tonight after no collects and a $75 loss.

Attention turns to tomorrow's Melbourne Cup as the punting competition rolls on — a reminder, the participants began the week with $250 to bet on the four major days of racing, with the winner whoever has the most coin at the end.

Ronnie Anderson ($310 in the kitty)

After making a profit on Aristia on Saturday I’m playing five horses today all at good odds, but only for small stakes because Melbourne Cup Day is a day for mug punters and I’m sure our old mate Payney’s Punt will be out in force as he is the president of Mug Punters United.

So let’s get down to winning.

Bet one: Flemington R5, #12 Little Rich Boy — $5 each way at $151/$35.

Youngster who has only had two starts and shown a bit of ability and his trainer John Hickmott loves nothing more than coming to Flemington during Cup Week and going home with some cash in his pocket. Let’s hope his jockey Sairyn "The Fawkelift’’ Fawke can lift him over the line.

Bet two: Flemington R7, #1 Cross Counter — $10 each way

Simply the best horse in the race and will be winning for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby of our eye.

Bet three: Flemington R7, #17 Sound — $5 each way at $101/$26

This horse is flying at the moment and is trained by the in-form Mike Moroney and has the services of Winks, that’s James Winks, just to clarify for you once a year punters in case you thought I meant the great mare.

Bet four: Flemington R8, #15 A Shin Rook — $10 each way at $13/$4.20

Has been racing well for Anthony Freedman and even though this horse is Japanese bred he is named after a work colleague of mine, Ashok, so he’s a definite get on.

Bet five: Flemington R9, #9 Crown Fontein — $5 each way at $41/$9

This bloke is a smart horse and is another trained by John Hickmott and ridden by The Fawkelift and hopefully we’ll be drinking Crowns after he rolls home.

Ashleigh ‘‘Punter’s Pal’’ Williamson ($290)

Thanks to Fierce Impact winning the Cantala Stakes, our nose is in front after Derby Day. Melbourne Cup Day is traditionally one of the hardest meetings to find a winner. With 10 races of mostly capacity fields, form lines are all over the place like a Tyler Maher opening spell with a shiny new Kookaburra. However, I am on the cusp of landing one of the great crystal ball selections with my Melbourne Cup tip.

Bet one: Flemington R3, #7 Sure Knee — $10 win at $4

Have backed this Chris Waller-trained mare in her two starts this campaign. Those were in Sydney, so I sense she may have been set for a Flemington Carnival hit-and-run assignment. Has autumn form around Princess Jenni, who finished fourth in Saturday’s Group One Empire Rose Stakes. That form is good enough to win this race.

Bet two: Flemington R6, #3 Bella Martini — $10 win at $7.50

Fourth, ninth and 12th may indicate this mare has run progressively worse in three starts this campaign. However, in the second-up ninth she finished just 3.4 lengths behind winner Sunlight in the Gilgai Stakes at Flemington. Only a G. Boss ride for the ages aboard Kolding denied Sunlight victory in Saturday’s inaugural $7.5 million Golden Eagle at Rosehill. Also Bella Martini has a win and a placing from three starts over 1400m at Flemington. You will be sipping martinis after she turns her form around.

Bet three: Flemington R7, #11 Finche — $50 win at $10

Go back to January 18, 2019. That is the day yours truly tipped Finche to win Melbourne Cup in the News sports team’s crystal ball challenge for regional, national and international events across this year. Some 11 months before the Cup, most people would be 500-1 to pick a horse that ends up in the final field of 24, let alone one of the favourites. This Chris Waller import ran fourth behind Cross Counter in last year’s Cup at his second Australian start. The gelding’s four lead-up runs this spring indicate he is much more mature and will run out a strong 3200m. Three-time Melbourne Cup winner Kerrin McEvoy rides and carrying the same weight as last year (54kg) are other ticks. I sense Waller has trained him to to the minute for the first Tuesday in November and I have no reason to jump off him.

Bet four: Flemington R8, #15 A Shin Rook — $10 win at $13

Runner-up in the Seymour Cup last start behind Admiral's Joker, who will go close to winning Wednesday’s Kyneton Cup if he runs in it. Anthony Freedman could train a rocking horse to win at the moment and A Shin Rook is a Flemington winner over 1800m.

Bet five: Flemington R10, #5 Xilong — $20 win at $3.10

This flying Adelaide filly has three wins from four starts, with her only defeat a third to Lil Kontra at Group Three level in May. Lil Kontra ran fourth in Saturday’s stallion-making Group One Coolmore Stud Stakes. Xilong rebounded to beat Lil Kontra first-up this spring before cantering in by five lengths last start at Morphettville last month. Get on Tony and Calvin McEvoy to save punters in the ‘‘Get Out Stakes’’.

Alex Mitchell ($212.50)

We could easily be sitting here talking about a huge profit after a slashing run from So Si Bon where ran an extremely narrow fourth — but there are plenty more fish in the sea.

Melbourne Cup Day races are typically harder to pick than a broken nose, but that means the odds on offer are juicy with a capital J.

Bet one: Flemington R7, #19 Constantinople — $50 to win at $8

After an absolutely eye-catching Caulfield Cup fourth, Constantinople is my clear top pick for the Melbourne Cup. Has the strong European staying pedigree, is the same age as the race's past two winners, and is a horse hand-picked by David Hayes to bring him his first Cup since 1994. I believe the Euroa punters will be celebrating in a big way tomorrow at about 3.05pm. None of this each-way nonsense, whack your money straight on the schnoz.

Bet two: Flemington R7, first four 1,2,11,19/1,2,6,11,19/1,2,3,6,11,12,14,19/1, 2, 3,6,11,12,14,19 — $13.05 for 3%

I have literally no idea if this is a good bet or not, but it wouldn't be Cup Day without some sort of exotic, and I've had a ping at this.

Bet three: Flemington R8, #8 So You Win — $25 to win at $6

With a formline that reads 21123424, it is fair to say this Chris Waller-trained gelding is ultra consistent, and due for a win — I expect it to be too good for these. Has wins in all conditions, so wet weather won't be a problem. A So You Think product wearing the famous Winx colours — what is not to like?

Bet four: Echuca R6, #4 Crafty Cruiser — $10 to win

A wise punter once told me not to bet on interstate races and to "keep things local" — and it doesn't get much more local than Echuca. Crafty Cruiser is a 12-year-old veteran of 156 starts and a genuine legend of the track, and I think saluting over 3200m on Melbourne Cup Day — albeit at Echuca — just sounds right. I have had to take tote odds as fixed odds were not available at the time of printing.

Aydin Payne ($190)

After a bang-average Derby Day, I have $190 left to attack the remaining three days of the carnival which I would have better luck sponsoring my small Mexican child, Morje Chilli. I have stuck with two bets on the Cup and gone for some value elsewhere to hopefully build enough in the bank for Thursday and Saturday.

Bet one: Flemington R7, #18 Surprise Baby — $10 each way at $15/$4.50

Could you imagine the story if this $5500 bargain buy stayer from the Wimmera/Mallee region got up? Not since the 2015 Cup, when my distant cousin Michelle made history, would the racing fraternity see such a good news story. His turn of foot in the Bart Cummings over 2500m was ridiculous and I can’t wait for him to explode on the international rivals, although the barrier in the car park does not help.

Bet two: Flemington R7, #19 Constantinople — $10 to win at $8

I looked for value in Surprise Baby, but have gone for one of the leading hopes in this Lindsay Park jet. David Hayes went out and bought himself a horse that was bred and born to do one thing, and that was to win the Melbourne Cup. He hit the line hard in his fourth placing in the Caulfield Cup and will only improve tomorrow afternoon.

Bet three: Flemington R9, #7 Runson — $10 each way at $19/$5

Looked for a bit of value elsewhere and I’m liking Runson in the 1200m sprint. Improved sharply in his last run at the Valley finishing second and enters this third-up off a spell. He has won twice when jumping for the third time in his prep. Could do some damage to his opponents and bookies, or maybe myself.

Tyler Maher ($175)

We’ll forgive the first-up run of this columnist due to atrocious punting conditions, but it means we’re looking for a winner on one of the toughest days to find one tomorrow. The best tip of the day will be to avoid the EBTs after close of business tonight, with once-a-year punters set to once again be clogging the lines more than a fruit Rollup in a set of teenage braces.

Bet one: Flemington R7, #14 Downdraft — $15 each way at $21/$6

Let’s get straight to the big business of the Melbourne Cup, where we’ll be nibbling at a few chances — starting with Hotham winner Downdraft.

Bet two: Flemington R7, #1 Cross Counter — $15 each way at $13/$4

Draw Cross Counter in your office cup sweep and you should be walking tall. Loves the distance, doesn’t mind it soft and will be around the mark.

Bet three: Flemington R7, #21 Steel Prince — $5 win at $67, $10 place at $17.50

Forgive this prep and look to before Steel Prince’s last spell where it won five races on the bounce. The most recent of those was over 2800m at Flemington in The Andrew Ramsden where it fought hard to the line to defeat Surprise Baby. It carried 58.5kg that day and drops 6kg tomorrow, and with $67 the win and $17.50 the place on offer you just want to be involved.

Bet four: Echuca R6, #9 Mr Integrity — $10 each way

Once you’ve waded through the ripped up tickets to collect your Melbourne Cup winnings, back yourself in to pick the winner in another 3200m race just a bit further north of the race that stops a nation. Of course I am speaking of the Echuca Racing Club’s own premium distance race, and after trawling through the local stable profiles in the Riverine Herald (and a few pages to your left in today’s News) I want to be on Daryl Archard’s Mr Integrity. Give it $10 each way of your hard-earned and ride it home at the tote odds. All up that’s a $95 outlay to take our running tally down to $80 — lucky we’re only punting with OTB Dollars, but I can sniff the end of this economic downturn coming tomorrow.