A win at AAMI Park on Saturday against Brisbane, who are out of finals contention, would have sealed third place ahead of Sydney and Macarthur, who play each other on Saturday night.
But Tony Popovic's charges rarely looked threatening in a stale performance while they had to play almost a half with 10 men after Geria was sent off in the 51st minute.
The Roar had 22 shots (four on target) to Victory's eight (two).
Victory (42 points) are currently third ahead of Sydney (38) and Macarthur (38) and could yet be caught by both if the Sky Blues and Bulls draw, then both win in the final round.
Victory will also sweat on how the match review panel assesses the Geria incident.
He caught Corey Brown in the shin with his studs in a sliding tackle and was initially booked, before being sent off after a VAR review.
Geria will be suspended for at least next week's clash with Western Sydney, but if the panel takes a dim view of the incident, he could miss the elimination final.Â
The game burst to life in the 39th minute when Henry Hore smacked a close-range header into the post.
Shortly after, Paul Izzo pulled off a tremendous save with his feet to deny Tom Aldred, then in the 44th minute Adama Traore almost turned the ball into his own net.
Two minutes into the second half, Bruno Fornaroli cleared Nikola Mileusnic's goal-bound shot off the line.
With Victory rattled after the Geria send-off, Hore netted in the 57th minute, but Florin Berenguer was offside in the build-up.
Izzo pulled off an extraordinary leaping fingertip save to deny Mileusnic in the 65th minute, and blocked a Hore shot in the 73rd.
Fornaroli should have put Victory ahead in the 76th minute, but got the ball caught under his feet and the chance got away from him.
