Queensland coach Billy Slater will confirm on Monday that Ponga has held off a challenge from Reece Walsh for the fullback spot, and will play on May 31 in Adelaide.
It comes weeks after serious questions were asked about Ponga's spot in the team as he battled to recover from a fourth concussion in 10 months.
Also struggling for form on his return at five-eighth for the Knights, Ponga answered his critics against Gold Coast last week and has now wrapped up the spot.
The 25-year-old then survived a scare in the Knights' loss to Cronulla on Saturday when he was taken off the field for a HIA but passed and will be picked by the Maroons.
"We all know Kalyn's history and for him to go off the field. It wasn't great for him," Slater said on Nine's Sunday Footy Show.
"But the good sign was he came back on and it didn't look like it affected him. He made some big tackles in the second half. That is the good signs for Kalyn."
Ponga's selection comes after he was Queensland's best player in last year's thrilling win in the decider, in what doubled as arguably his finest hour on the football field.
"It was (unbelievable)," said Maroons five-eighth Cameron Munster, who missed the decider with COVID.
"I was sitting in front of the TV screen and I lost my voice watching it as true home-grown Maroon. I was really excited and pumped.
"Hopefully Kalyn is good and his head is alright. If he is, then I am sure he will be ready and raring to go.
"Regardless of who is playing fullback we have got electrifying players. Reece Walsh and Kalyn Ponga are great assets for our team and provide X factor."
Ponga's selection will be one of several crucial calls made by Maroons selectors when they unveil a team captained by halfback Daly Cherry-Evans for the fifth straight series.
Melbourne flyer Xavier Coates is expected to be left out after missing the final two games last year through injury, with Selwyn Cobbo and Murray Taulagi likely to be the two wingers.
Veteran Dane Gagai has kept his spot in the side and will likely partner Valentine Holmes in the centres.
Felise Kaufusi's looming ban for a high shot is likely to mean David Fifita being recalled, with Kurt Capewell and Tom Gilbert locked in as other second-rowers in the squad.
Tom Flegler is also set to earn a recall for the first time since his sole experience in Origin III of 2021, as one of four Broncos alongside Cobbo, Capewell and lock Pat Carrigan.
"He is playing great footy," Carrigan said of Flegler.
"The last three weeks he has been one of the form front-rowers in the comp. He would do a great job in that arena.
"He has already played there and thank God he is a Queenslander because if I was playing against him I'd hate to run at him."
6°C