The Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival officially kicks off this weekend and Payney's Punt is primed and ready to cast our eyes over the action.
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As most of our loyal readers would know — by checking the weight of their wallet — it has been a difficult few weeks on the track.
After some soul-searching and rain dances during the week, we have a good feeling that our luck will turn.
Although Sydney has three Group One races on offer, we are sticking to Flemington's meeting which is headlined by the Group One Turnbull Stakes (2000m).
With an eye on the nine-race card, expect them to race on a Soft track, with the chance of an upgrade if no more rain arrives.
The rail will be out 9m.
As always, if you are taking the chance to double the weight of your wallet or purse on Saturday, please remember to gamble responsibly.
Race 1. 12.10pm — Maribyrnong Trial Stakes (1000m)
The opening race is a chance for us punters to find one or two for the blackbook. Best to let this one through to the keeper. All 11 two-year-olds are making their debut. Cavallo Rampante (9) is the early favourite and has jumped out twice without an official trial. Robusto (7) is short odds and won a recent jump-out. Ran five lengths quicker than the jump-out between Cannonball (2) and Edwin (4). Doc O'Oconnor (3) is the brother to G2 winner Heatherly and has drawn the rails. Opened at $41 and has come in steadily. Rampant Lion (6) won a trial at Cranbourne on a Heavy 9 track. Sat on the speed and won well. Get In The Spirit (10) led all the way and won a jump-out at Sandown. In the mix.
Top tip: Rampant Lion
Race 2. 12.40pm — Super Impose Stakes (1800m)
Expect Character (3) to take up the front running from Euro Dandy (5), Cerberus (13) and Gunstock (8), while Tiz Magic (10) will settle towards the rear. Gunstock is the early market favourite. Is stepping out for only the third time, but broke through for maiden win last start over the mile. That was a tough run (sat wide without cover) and showed a strong turn of foot. Will be fitter here. Hitotsu (7) is close behind in the market. Won last start in a maiden over 1350m and charged to the line. Euro Dandy is much like Hitotsu and won its maiden last start over 1325m. Won that in good time. Tutukaka (1) finished five lengths off the winner in the Exford when fresh over 1400m. Has won over 1800m before at Stakes level and carried 57kg that day. Not the worst.
Top tip: Gunstock
Race 3. 1.15pm — Edward Manifold Stakes (1610m)
The Manifold Stakes has the three-year-old fillies step out over the mile. Not a whole heap of form here with all bar one of these runners tested over the journey. Looks like the pace should be modest with early speed coming from out wider. Elusive Express (2) is finding plenty of love and is the pre-race favourite. Has form in the wet and the way she hit the line at her latest start indicates the mile will suit. Daises (11) was second quickest home in that race behind Elusive Express and the extra furlong is a tick. Yearning (1) carried 61kg and won last start over 1400m. Had a flying final 200m and the drop to 56kg is a huge tick. Two roughies in Swamp Vixen (6) and Caliper (9) are worth a watch. The former has Forgot You and Sandy Prince form and had excuses last start. Will roll forward and find a nice position. Caliper was unplaced last start, but finished third behind Bon's A Pearla two-back. Missed the start and with blinkers on could be an improver. Tough race to crack.
Top tip: Yearning
Race 4. 1.50pm — Gilgai Stakes (1200m)
Back down the straight and expect the early speed to come from Splintex (2) and Away Game (6). This pair was the quinella last start in the G2 Bobbie Lewis and will be there again. Splintex is a dual acceptor at Randwick. Our heart is torn on Zoutori (1). Our long-time followers understand the love we have for this son of Zoustar. Ran a strong fourth last start in the Bobbie Lewis when fresh and his second-up form is superb. Won this race last year when second-up and with 59kg on his back. Will need to get the job done with 60kg on Saturday. Any threat of rain or if the track remains soft is a query. Kemalpasa (3) ran second to Zoutori last year and is a serious threat. Has great form down the straight and four wins in the wet. Another quinella?
Top tip: Zoutori
Race 5. 2.25pm — Danehill Stakes (1100m)
We stay down the straight for the G2 Danehill Stakes. General Beau (2) will fly out from barrier 12, while speed will come from Mornington Glory (10), Ranveer (5) and 7,3. Ranch Hand (4) won the Poseidon Stakes (1100m) last start and pipped Ingratiating (1) near the post. That performance was when the colt was fresh, so expect him to find another gear. We think Ingratiating will bounce back and return serve here with a 2kg swing. The Godolphin colt is yet to run a bad race this prep and is tried and tested down the straight. Ranveer was unable to match General Beau last start over 1000m in quick time. Watch market on Gimmie Par (12) who ran second to Ingratiating earlier this year over this track/distance.
Top tip: Ingratiating
Race 6. 3.05pm — Rose of Kingston Stakes (1410m)
A wide-open race greets us here. Looking at the speed maps, expect Best Stone (14) and Annavisto (9) to roll forward. Annavisto won last start after finishing on the heels of smart type Turaath. Is third-up here and has won third-up before. Drops in weight and has terrific form over 1400m. Is rising in class, but Turaath beat home most of these in the G2 Let's Elope Stakes, so that form ties in. The runner-up in that race was Mystic Journey (3). It was a tough watch if you backed the mare last start as she sat four-wide without cover. But it was a classy finish and she deserves the favourite tag. Expect improvement second-up. Her best is good enough here. Instant Celebrity (2) finished sixth in that same race (had excuses), but placed when fresh behind gun mare Probabeel. Is yet to finish outside of the placings when third-up and will be charging late from the back. Snickerdoodledandy (10) hit the line hard when fresh behind Probabeel and Instant Celebrity. Has two wins when third-up, but has drawn the rails. Still A Star (7) was great in the Let's Elope and ran third. Maps to get a soft run on the speed and will be fitter here.
Top tip: Annavisto
Race 7. 3.45pm — Turnbull Stakes (2000m)
The feature race has us excited to see a champion come up against a potential star. It looks a battle between Verry Elleegant (4) and Incentivise (3). The former probably holds the title of the best horse Down Under at the moment. Has nine G1 wins to her name. Has a 10-5-3-0 record over this trip and has a ridiculous 6:5-1-0 record when third-up. Any rain about will be another tick. Incentivise will take up the front running. It was a great run when fresh from the emerging star and the extra 400m will suit. Has wet track form. Hard to split those two. Sir Dragonet (1) worked home strongly in the Makybe Diva Stakes. The rise in distance is a big tick. Colette (8) had the fastest final 200m in the G1 Memsie. Will appreciate soft ground and the rise in distance. Persan (1) could surprise at wide odds. Has three wins over 2000m and three on soft ground.
Top tip: Verry Elleegant
Race 8. 4.25pm — The Bart Cummings (2500m)
Another open affair greets us in the Bart Cummings. Expect Knights Order (3) and Grand Promenade (11) to lurch forward and set the pace. Grand Promenade was tough in recent start and finished fifth. Had no luck and raced wide without cover. Should settle in a good spot. The rise in trip will suit. Sheraz (10) is having first run Down Under and is a talented stayer. Tralee Rose (13) is another we like, but the wide barrier is a concern. Ran strongly last start and is fitter now. Amade (5) finished eighth behind Tralee Rose last start, but should improve here second-up (4:2-2-0). The way Port Guillaume (8) finished off last start had us sit up and take notice. This imported stayer is crying out for a longer trip. Has won at 2500m before and any rain about is a big tick. Is fitter third-up and expect more improvement. We are going to have a nibble EW in what should be a cracking race.
Top tip: Grand Promenade W, Port Guillaume EW
Race 9. 5.05pm — Paris Lane Stakes (1410m)
Expect a quick tempo in the last, with Crosshaven (2), Morvada (5), 10 and 7 pushing forward. Aysar (1) is the early favourite and no surprises to see the four-year-old grab that tag. Ran well last start in the G1 Rupert Clarke. Finished fourth and drops in grade, but rises considerably in weight. Could we see a Lindsay Park quinella with stablemate Crosshaven (2)? Has form against Aysar and is undefeated on soft ground from three starts. Two wins at this track and two at the trip. Samzidat (4) was no match for them in the Rupert Clarke, but the gelding's form in the wet is great. Morvada (5) has a terrific strike-rate over 1400m and when second-up, but needs dry ground.
Top tip: Aysar
Best of the Day
Where: Flemington
When: Tomorrow
Race 6: Ingratiating (1)
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