Some argue keeping things in perspective and not overreacting is important in sport.
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We at Outside The Box say different.
The words “sample size” are not ones we live by at OTB HQ, but rather “hot takes” — one game can be more than enough to form sizzling hot opinions.
And that is the plan today — what did we learn from last weekend's opening Goulburn Valley League and Murray league opening rounds? And what has the AFL shown us so far?
Famously, the last time I penned this themed column I wrote off Echuca United's 2019 campaign and was subsequently told I was not welcome at that club (God forbid) — and yet look at the results.
United would deliver a straight-sets finals exit Bernard Tomic would be proud of despite after some sort of table-topping run through the regular season; as we said at the time, do it in September and then we'll be impressed.
Let's have another go at accurately assessing the lay of the footballing land.
United will top the Shepparton ranks
Before the 2020 season, we predicted Shepparton United would top the Shepparton-Mooroopna senior football ranks for the first time since 2013, and it appears little has changed to alter that fact.
United's new talents hit the ground running; Mitch Cleeland was best-on, Ed Adams and Doug Wren impressed and Fitzroy Greenwool kicked three goals, and it sounds like there's plenty more to come from Brock McLean and Ross Tungatalum.
Leading from start to finish bodes well and, while it was a rather young Shepparton side it took care of, ticking off a professional round one win is exactly what the building Demons group needed.
A real test — Euroa — awaits this weekend and if the Demons can pull off an upset on their home deck, you can book them in for finals — if you can't already.
But the form of the other local sides will also help United top the ranks — Mooroopna didn't so much stumble out of the blocks, but rather fell over completely, conceding six goals to none in the second quarter against a Mansfield side little is expected of. That performance could well be an outlier, but we're not sure they're on the Demons’ levels.
And while the Swans got nine goals from new lad Michael Cooke, plenty of improvement will be needed to match it with the league's best after giving up 145 points to Benalla.
Echuca will be a finals-free zone
Tough weekend for the 3564; Echuca copped a nine-goal hammering at the hands of a new-ish looking Seymour side, while Echuca United also failed to fire against cross-town rival Moama — which had already gone down to Deniliquin the week before.
I wonder where Echuca fits into the GVL landscape; it has a stack of exciting elite kids, plus veteran class to come back into the line-up, but as Euroa, Rochester, Benalla and United have improved, have the Murray Bombers, when you take Darby Henderson, Tim Allan and Dan Willis out of their grand final line-up?
Benalla away tomorrow is a genuine test, and with Kyabram and Rochester on the menu after that, there's a world where Echuca starts the season 0-4.
Over at United, remove a hoard of players from that 2019 side like Ben Fulford, Josh Mellington, Kyle Coates, Nic Denahy and Farran Priest, and it's tough to see how it is coming up with enough wins to make the top six.
Nathalia is on notice
For a scorching hot column, I'm hoping this sub-section is taken in the lukewarm manner we're hoping for, because you can't necessarily put more credits in the bank than winning five straight premierships.
We simply say this — we're essentially issuing the Purples a “please explain” for an odd start to 2021.
From beating Tongala by 45 points in the 2019 grand final, they've fallen by 65 points in round one, a 110-point turnaround.
Combine this with a reported hammering at the hands of Heathcote District league side Lockington-Bamawm United in the pre-season, and there's a couple of eyebrow-raising results in a short period of time.
Mind you, while Nathalia is certainly on notice, there's arguably zero reason to panic.
The Purples had 10 faces in their round one line-up that didn't play in the 2019 decider, and let's not forget they lost their first game in 2019 before reeling off a lazy 20 consecutive wins.
They've also, as previously mentioned, won five straight; they'll be fine, and probably win a sixth.
The Goulburn Valley will have an All-Australian half-back-flank
Whether it's Shepparton's Jarman Impey or Invergordon's Lachie Ash, expect one of the dashing defenders to add a blazer to their cupboard.
Impey is one of the game's most exciting players with his run, not only in the back half, but surging Hawthorn into attack.
He's a cool head in defence, is third in the league in running bounces, and just does not turn the ball over — and is an absolute must-have in SuperCoach for those so inclined.
And Ash, 19, is one of the clear shining lights of an underwhelming GWS season, looking super confident with ball-in-hand as his team's best player against Melbourne on Sunday.
The statistical growth year-on-year is there — 20.7 disposals a game, up from 11.3 last season, 4.3 rebound 50s up from 1.3 and 3.3 inside 50s up from 1.4 — but the way in which more experienced players are looking at him to drive his side forward speaks plenty about how much he's improved.
And while we're on the topic of defenders, has anyone got a spare pair of cargo pants Jordon Butts can borrow? He's already shoved Tom Hawkins in one pocket and Lance Franklin in another.
Senior journalist