A tropical storm warning is in effect for extreme southern Florida and stretching as far north as the Fort Myers area, which was crushed by Hurricane Ian in 2022, with the storm expected to hit the peninsular state's west coast by Saturday night.
Powerful ocean surges are forecast for Bonita Beach northward to Tampa Bay, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical Depression — National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) #Four Advisory 3A: Tropical Depression Moving West-Northwestward Near the South Coast of Cuba. Expected to Become a Tropical Storm Over the Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico Later Today Or Tonight. https://t.co/tW4KeGe9uJAugust 3, 2024
Those surges could send powerful sea waves further inland than normal, damaging structures and threatening anyone in their path.
Governor Ron DeSantis has put most of the state's cities and counties under emergency orders ahead of the expected landfall.
"It's over Cuba right now," hurricane centre deputy director Jamie Rome said in an interview on Friday.
"We are anticipating it to turn into a tropical storm over the weekend.
"Right now it's a broad, sloppy system but we expect it to become more organised when it's back over Gulf waters."
If the storm swells into a tropical storm - with winds between 63km/h and 117km/h - it will take the name Debby.
US forecasters expect a large number of Atlantic hurricanes to form in the 2024 season, which began on June 1, with four to seven major hurricanes forming out of 25 named storms.
That is more than the record-breaking 2005 season that spawned hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Florida is monitoring Invest 97L in the Atlantic, which is expected to strengthen and potentially make landfall as early as this weekend. It will be slow-moving and bring lots of rain that could cause significant flooding.— Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) I encourage all residents to prepare for the storm and…August 1, 2024
Only one hurricane, Beryl, has formed in the Atlantic so far this year.
The earliest category five storm on record, it ravaged the Caribbean and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula before rolling up the Gulf Coast of Texas as a category one storm.
Rome said that even if the current system does not strengthen into a tropical storm, it will bring as much as 30cm of rainfall to parts of Florida.
"People often use wind speed as a proxy for how dangerous a system is," Rome said.
"But this is a classic case to not do that.
"The rain rate, it comes down so quickly, makes it dangerous."
He said it was too soon to say exactly when or where the storm might make landfall.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for the Florida Keys and the Gulf Coast.
The storm is expected to follow a similar track as the deadly 2022 Hurricane Ian, which killed at least 103 in Florida and caused billions of dollars in damage as it made its way along the Gulf Coast.
