Breaking down the strength of each Haisman Shield team’s remaining games

By this token, it would be nigh on impossible to gaze into an unclouded crystal ball and confidently declare six finals-bound sides with five rounds to go.

So instead of relying on gut feelings, instincts and individual form, we can gain helpful insight by examining the table and determining whose run home should favour a late surge ― or allow them to cement a place at the table early.

Under this system, points are assigned based on teams’ current standings, with an upcoming game against top-ranked Waaia adding one to the tally and Euroa adding 13 from the foot of the table.

The team with the fewest remaining points on their board is considered to have the most demanding run home.

If you support the Lakers, this might not be pretty reading as we get stuck in:

13: Northerners (bye, average opp. position 7.75)

Make way for Stuart Turner’s men, or at least, there’s strong potential you may have to.

Following a 0-3 start in which the Tallygaroopna outfit gave barely a yelp, Northerners have made multiple statements heading into the Christmas period, capped with a big away win over Nagambie.

With guaranteed bye points coming and games on either side against two teams many expected them to sit in the doldrums with (Tatura and Euroa), a two-day clash in the final round against Mooroopna should decide whether the fairytale lives.

12: Kyabram (bye, average opp. position 7.75)

There’s never a wrong time to recapture your form, but the Redbacks might have picked an excellent one.

Kyabram’s one-dayer at home to Shepparton United in the next round shapes as a season-defining clash, not just for these teams but in determining almost the composition of the whole top six.

The schedule awaiting Jackson McLay’s side is barely less favourable than that of Northerners because top seed Waaia awaits in the penultimate round.

The Redbacks were pencilled in as top contenders by many around the league pre-season, and with Karramomus on the final two Saturdays, they will have a prime position to take advantage of slip-ups.

11: Mooroopna (bye, average opp. position 7.5)

When you’re the only side to knock off the ladder leader, and you’ve won five on the bounce, you likely fancy yourself against anyone.

The rampaging Cats are on the highest of highs after a spirited victory over Waaia, surging into second place.

They also have the added benefit of skipping every other top-four outfit on their way to an assumed finals place.

Mooroopna’s following two clashes come against sides upset by lower-ranked opposition, and the Lakers and Blues will be dangerous adversaries.

Even with personnel out, though, the Cats appear undaunted by any opposition, and while the bye points naturally help, they may have been just as odds-on to claim them even if they played.

10: Old Students (bye, average opp. position 7.5)

We thought we had seen everything Old Students could dish up in this Haisman competition for 2023-24.

That was before one of the most mind-boggling two-day games in the league’s history had the Callan McCabe-led side scoop an unthinkable bag against Central Park.

Sitting 2-6 is hardly where the Students would like to be, but with some lingering faults acknowledged, there’s room to put in work to save a campaign that ends early with the final-round bye.

One would be wise not to tread lightly if they were Katandra, United or Kyabram; ask the Tigers how that turns out.

9: Shepparton United (average opp. position 7.4)

Statistically, Shepparton United has the most comfortable remaining schedule of any side that has already had its week off.

After completing the trip to Kyabram for a crunch clash when the competition restarts, United will not leave the Greater Shepparton area until any potential finals and get to spend the final five Saturdays at Princess Park.

The main concern, of course, lies in entertaining Waaia across the final fortnight.

If Rehan Bari can lead his Lightfoot Medal-worthy charge across fixtures with Old Students in rounds 10 and 11, though, United could find itself home and hosed with time to spare.

8: Katandra (average opp. position 7)

The fourth-placed Eagles were among those setting the early pace in this year’s Haisman Shield, but stumbled after flourishing during the first month.

All is far from lost, of course, and with Old Students and a two-dayer against Karramomus first on the menu after Christmas, the odds suggest Ryleigh Shannon’s side would be 7-2 heading into a monster affair with Waaia.

The Lakers and Blues await in the final set of games, though, and both could be fighting for their lives if slip-ups continue to occur, meaning the Eagles can hardly afford to coast even if they win when expected.

7: Waaia (average opp. position 7)

The ladder-leading Bombers don’t have to play the top side, which separates their schedule from Katandra with the same average.

Waaia’s confidence may have suffered a blow following its home defeat to the Cats going into the break, but the remaining fixtures are perfectly balanced along the competition’s midline.

Winless Euroa should represent the perfect chance to hit top form again on January 6, but the heroics of players like leading wicket-taker Jesse Trower may be called upon with tricky meetings against the Tigers and Eagles ― both away ― to follow.

Meeting Kyabram and Shepparton United to close the regular season represents a potential minefield for the top outfit, which already has four other sides within 12 premiership points.

6: Karramomus (average opp. position 6.8)

At long last, Karramomus held on for a maiden Haisman Shield victory before the break over fellow struggler Euroa.

That success will likely be short-lived, with back-to-back contests against Central Park and Katandra waiting on the other side of the festive season.

Of most interest to Mitch McGrath’s men will likely be the penultimate match-up against Old Students, which should all but guarantee the winner is absolved of wooden-spoon status.

5: Tatura (bye, average opp. position 6.75)

Tatura has by far the most challenging run-in of any side still to collect its bye points.

Daniel Coombs has already stated his side is grateful to pick up the freebies in early January, and it’ll have longer than anyone to contemplate its upcoming games.

Any remaining glimmers of a top-six berth for Tatura will likely hinge on its first post-Christmas clash with Northerners.

If Coombs and company can pass that test, though, consecutive meetings with Mooroopna and Central Park will stand as the ultimate proving ground in hopes the finale against Euroa still holds meaning.

4: Central Park-St Brendan’s (average opp. position 6.6)

After a shocking boilover cost the almost even-money Tigers a fifth win, the perennial contenders come into the home stretch with a point to prove.

Karramomus should, on paper, set the stage nicely for a rebound, but trust issues naturally abound until contests such as these are back to being routinely put away.

The mid-January two-dayer at home to Waaia is a mouth-watering prospect, and the round 11 contest with Nagambie has every chance to be as important.

The Lakers would need to overcome a rather unfortunate run of their own, though ― more on that later.

3: Numurkah (average opp. position 6.2)

A lot has happened in the world since October 28, but the Blues getting their hands raised isn’t one of those things.

Despite the best efforts of individual contributors such as Paul Braybon and skipper Tim Arnel, Numurkah has found itself in freefall after a blistering start to the season.

Northerners after the break will represent a bogey Arnel’s men could not have wanted any less, and a two-dayer with Mooroopna makes the route to securing a top-six spot no easier.

Euroa will be a non-negotiable set of points because Katandra and Central Park loom as a nightmare pair of closing fixtures for a side out of form.

2: Euroa (average opp. position 6.2)

Any success would mark a belated Christmas offering for a beleaguered Euroa side anchored to the bottom.

Suppose it wasn’t already hard enough sitting as the Haisman’s only winless side, having handed maiden victories to Old Students and Karramomus in recent weeks.

In that case, the next three weeks, hosting Waaia before trips to Nagambie and Numurkah, look potentially misery-laden.

There remains an outside chance of salvaging anything other than a wooden spoon fate against either Northeners or Tatura in the closing stages, but a damning schedule doesn’t help a grim outlook.

1: Nagambie (average opp. position 5.8)

The scene could hardly be more confronting for the Lakers, who would face an average of fourth-placed teams if their score wasn’t buffered by a meeting with Euroa in mid-January.

After faltering against Northerners, despite Mark Nolan leading from the front and doing everything imaginable to snag a result, almost nothing is too safe for Nagambie, irrespective of its 5-2 record.

To make matters that much worse, after welcoming Mooroopna and Euroa to Nagambie Recreation Reserve first off the rank, the Lakers are on the road for five straight Saturdays to close out their campaign, making stops at Central Park, Shepparton United and Katandra.

A near-total nightmare draw awaits Nagambie, which will have fought harder than almost anyone to nab a potential double chance from this position.