After a nasty tumble down the punting mountain last week, Payney's Punt is back.
We spent a few days dusting off the cuts and bruises, but don't stress (not that you were), the cliff fall off Mount TAB only punctured and emptied the wallet.
It was a glorious start to last week's edition, with consecutive winners to start the day, but things quickly took a turn for the worst.
Here at Payney's Punt we are not a fond lover of the snow slopes, however, we certainly went downhill skiing after race two.
The sudden drop mirrored that of the tote price on your mate's horse after the group piles on because "it's due a win".
Safe to say this mug punter needed a fair amount of glue to patch himself together on Saturday night.
Looking to tomorrow's nine-race card at Flemington, the rail will be out 4 m and the track is expected to be a Soft 5 or Good 4.
If you are activating the powerplay and boosting your odds tomorrow, please remember to always gamble responsibly.
Race 1. 11.55 am — BM90 (1000 m)
Expecting a rapid start in the opener with Irish Mint (5), Mister Mogul (6) and Snitzcraft (2) to push forward down the straight. Irish Mint is flying with two-straight wins and Mister Mogul won here last start at big odds. Tasmanian galloper Gee Gee Secondover (3) resumes after 20 weeks and is undefeated when first-up. Handles good ground and has a 3:2-1-0 record at this trip. First crack down the straight. Snitzcraft looks a play at good odds. Didn't fire a shot last start in the Vic Sprint Final, but before that run, he finished second behind Prezado at this trip. If he replicates that performance he wins here. Drops back to a distance that he enjoys and the claim will suit.
Top tip: Snitzcraft
Race 2. 12.30 pm — Super Vobis 3-Y-O (1200 m)
Looks a battle between the two heavily backed runners Proper Rogue (4) and Sansom (1). The latter is back at a distance he excels at and is undefeated when third-up. Claim will help. Proper Rogue finished second behind Lucifer's Reward (2) when resuming over 1000 m. Will handle the rise to 1200 m and is 2:1-1-0 when second-up. For the value hunters, look for Exeter (5) to do well if the track condition is upgraded. Got back on the winners’ list last start on synthetic and co-trainer Ben Hayes says he's been screaming out for good ground. Has three wins at this distance.
Top tip: Sansom
Race 3. 1.05 pm — Super Vobis 2-Y-O (1800 m)
Hard to gauge trip form with each runner stepping up to 1800 m for the first time. Alycone (1) looks the one to beat. Finished behind Cherry Tortoni last start over 1600 m. Chased strongly in that performance and you know he can handle the rise up to 1800 m. How about the run from Johnny Get Angry (3) in that same? Finished third when 100-1, but rises in weight here. Last week we went wide and circled Confrontational (5) as an each-way play, ran a strong third. On a quick turnaround, but expect the colt to get a comfy run from barrier one. Don't dismiss outsider Split Second (6), who is having second run tomorrow. Ran third on debut over 1400 m and that form stacks up here after Efflorescence won last week.
Top tip: Alycone
Race 4. 1.40 pm — BM90 (1400 m)
Back down to a shorter trip here and look for a slow speed to be set. Laburnum (1) will push forward from barrier two. Looks ready to win third-up after a third with 62 kg at last start. Rises to 1400 m and has a 7:2-3-1 record at this trip. Claim will help. El Questro (3) carries less weight and can work her way into the money at nice odds. Has a 9:1-3-3 record on good ground. And Beauty Bolt (8) gets the claim and will run around with 53 kg. Finished second two runs back over 1400 m but was poor last start.
Top tip: Laburnum
Race 5. 2.20 pm — Hcp (2800 m)
We are ready to be let down by Sin To Win (7) one more time. The seven-year-old gelding has been there abouts in each run this preparation, but has continued to miss out. Co-trainer Ben Hayes said in the lead-up that Sin To Win had been crying out for a longer distance and he gets that here. Finished strongly in the Banjo Patterson Final behind stablemate Alfarris (4). Daniel Stackhouse jumps in the saddle, big tick. Alfarris was brave in that race and deserved to pinch victory. Expect another strong showing.
Top tip: Sin To Win
Race 6. 3 pm — Super Vobis 3-Y-O (1600 m)
Expect to a slow pace here, with only 8 and 6 to push forward. We see Right You Are (1) front up after being scratched last week for tomorrow's race. Has drawn barrier four and should get a nice run. Charged home for second behind Persan over 2000 m, Persan has since won again at Flemington. That looks the right form. Comes back to the mile and has 62 kg with Damien Oliver in the saddle. Expect another strong effort from Stretto (9) who missed out last start to good type Walking Flying at this track and distance.
Top tip: Right You Are
Race 7. 3.40 pm — Hcp (1600 m)
We stick to the mile here and it looks to be a fast tempo out of the blocks from Sircconi (1) and Orderofthegarter (3). Sircconi sat third off the leader last start before bolting away to win by 4 lengths at this track/distance. Rises 6 kg here and will have to work a bit early. Orderofthegarter has not been seen in 96 weeks, but normally goes well fresh. Has two wins from three at this distance. Danon Roman (7) won last start at this track and distance, Billy Egan retains the ride and expect a strong performance. Drops in weight and has placed twice when third-up. Will be working home late.
Top tip: Danon Roman
Race 8. 4.15 pm — Hcp (2000 m)
Mirimar (7) will push up to the front, looking to follow on from his last start win over this journey. Racing well at the moment and Lewis Germain retains the ride. Claim will help too. Danny O'Brien's Plein Ciel (2) finished fourth last start and rises to 2000 m. Has won and placed at this trip and does well in these conditions. Happy to back our blackbooker Double You Tee (5) in as the top tip. The Patty Payne and Billy Egan duo has consistently got the job done and here is hoping that form continues. Double You Tee is 7:2-4-0 over this trip and has a great record on good and soft ground. Best value of the day.
Top tip: Double You Tee EW
Race 9. 4.48 pm — BM78 (1200 m)
A wide-open affair to end the day. Our Wind Spirit (8) is airborne at the moment with four wins from five attempts. Pinyin (17) flew home from midfield last start, was not seen until the final 200 m when she let rip with a withering finishing burst to finish fourth. Has a 9:2-4-1 record at this trip and has placed twice at Flemington. Orleans Rock (11) resumes from a nine-week break. Will be doing best work late. Bit of value in Sakura (12) who finished fourth last start behind She's A Thief. Has drawn the wide barrier, but that could play into her hands with the grandstand rail an option. Has three wins at this distance and can fire on soft or good ground.
Top tip: Sakura EW
Best of the day
Where: Flemington
When: Tomorrow
Race 6: Right You Are (1)