The Climate Group is based in Newcastle, NSW, and it says its mission is to: “influence decision makers — large and small — towards action that prevents catastrophic climate change using innovation, empathy and logic”.
Question from The News:
Shepparton is listed as having 92.9 per cent of properties at moderate or high risk from all hazards in 2025, and 91.1 per cent at moderate to high risk from riverine flooding. However, Rochester, Victoria is listed as having much lower risk with 37.9 per cent and 32.9 per cent. This is despite the fact that the most recent devastating floods in 2022 have affected a greater percentage of homes in Rochester than in Shepparton.
Can you please explain how the risk was calculated for these two locations, especially based on the fact that data from the 2022 flood event was available?
The answer from The Climate Risk Group:
“Our analysis is about the probability of an extreme weather event happening and causing physical damage to property. In reality, some places will get flooded, others won't, but they may (have) the same probability. Each extreme weather event is slightly different and will unfold in a unique way.
“The purpose of our analysis and the reports we publish is to highlight areas where there is a high probability of a severe weather event causing significant structural damage, and where insurance is likely to become increasingly expensive, potentially even unavailable.
“In terms of how our risk is calculated, XDI (a Climate Risk Group company) calculates risk using its Climate Risk Engines, which employ engineering-based methods to assess the exposure and vulnerability of asset archetypes. This approach helps understand the likely damage and failure probability of assets caused by extreme weather and climate change hazards.”
News question:
Greater Shepparton Mayor Shane Sali was quoted by the ABC as saying this about the report released by your company: “The risk associated with our city does not stack up and I completely rebut it.” Cr Sali said the town is being proactive about the risks climate change brings and that mitigation measures are being taken, as evidenced by the fact that homes in newer estates in Shepparton were not affected by the 2022 floods. What’s your response to this?
The Climate Risk Group response:
“It’s great news to know that the Mayor Shane Sali is being proactive about flood risk and climate change risk. The aim of the report was to get councils on the front foot so they can protect their communities. However, we would strongly encourage home owners looking at buying into the area to check with insurers and banks if they share the same view as the council re flood risk and are pricing premiums accordingly, because if they still believe you’re in a flood zone, you’re still at risk of losing your insurance or mortgage, irrespective of the mitigation efforts that have been made.”
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