Scientists say there's a decent chance two major drivers of Australia's climate could coincide later this year and cause more east coast flooding.
It's enough to make a grown man cry but tennis club manager and head coach Laurie Geist resorts to black humour instead, saying it might be time to get a job at Bunnings.
"I joke about the Bunnings thing but it does your head in a bit," he says of what he's already endured and what might be still to come.
The two climate drivers could cause more flooding in parts of NSW that have already suffered three and in some cases four recent inundations.
The first is La Nina, a complex weather pattern that begins in the Pacific ocean off the east coast of Australia.
It causes warm surface waters and clouds to move west towards Australia and typically results in higher than usual rainfall.
University of NSW climate scientist Agus Santoso says Australia had back to back La Nina years in 2020 and 2021 and could be in line for a third this year.
"Currently there's about a 60 per cent chance of La Nina forming in summer," he says.
The other climate driver that could come into play is the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which affects what happens in the ocean off Australia's west coast.
When the IOD is in a negative phase, Australia usually gets a lot more rain.
"A negative IOD means warmer conditions north west of Australia, and that means more moisture in the air," Dr Santoso says.
"That is a source of moisture for southern Australia, and that event is forming at the moment. Almost all of the forecast models point to a negative IOD by spring."
If the two patterns do coincide, Dr Santoso says the flood risk is certain to increase, because after so much wet weather already, the ground is saturated, and the dams are full.
"If you have these conditions towards the end of this year it's not very good news."
Mr Geist cringes as the thought of a possible fifth flood when he's yet to clean up the fourth that left only one metre of the clubhouse roof above the waterline on Sunday.
He knows what's ahead, including the tedious process of pressure hosing stinking silt off the club's eight courts before replacing the sand that supports the synthetic grass playing surfaces.
There's also the revolting task of getting rid of whatever floated in. Last time that included lounge chairs, logs and an enormous skip bin.
As for money, that's been in short supply for two years that began when COVID shut down club activities.
"We'll soldier on, but yeah it's been a crazy year, that's for sure."
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