A survey of 1514 Victorians by independent polling outfit RedBridge between July 23 and August 1 has Labor and the coalition tied 50-50 on a two-party preferred (TPP) basis.
The poll has Labor's primary vote at 31 per cent - six points lower than at the state election in November 2022 - compared with 40 per cent for the coalition.
It is the first time the coalition has been all square with Labor on TPP since a Galaxy poll in December 2017.
"It's definitely a sign that something's going on in the electorate," RedBridge director Kos Samaras told ABC Radio Melbourne on Monday.
The former Labor deputy campaign director said Labor continued to enjoy solid support from younger cohorts, with a 62 TPP advantage among 18 to 34-year-olds and 55 TPP for those aged between 35 and 49.
Liberal Leader John Pesutto is seen as a credible alternative to the Victorian premier. (James Ross/AAP PHOTOS)
But a significant chunk of younger people were shifting their support to the Greens, while Victorians aged between 50 and 64 have crossed to the coalition and minor parties for a specific reason.
"It's the stories about the health cuts that are driving sentiment away from the Labor government," Mr Samaras said.
The poll comes after the CFMEU scandal erupted in June and will be viewed as a fillip for state Liberal Leader John Pesutto, who is set to head to trial in September to defend defamation action from dumped first-term MP Moira Deeming.
Mr Samaras said Mr Pesutto had successfully created a "credible alternative" and suggested it would be unwise for internal Liberal detractors to establish "an atmosphere of instability" by dumping him as leader.
The coalition would need to pick up at least 17 extra seats to form majority government when Victorians next head to the polls on November 28, 2026.
Mr Pesutto was confident he would lead the coalition to the next election and said the poll echoed his and colleagues' everyday discussions with Victorians.
"People are less optimistic in Victoria under Premier Jacinta Allan," he told reporters.
Ms Allan said she was not focused on the latest poll following speculation it would put pressure on her leadership.
Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, who threatened to challenge Ms Allan for the leadership after Mr Andrews retired in September 2023, said he had the job he wanted.
"There's only one poll that matters," he said.
10°C