Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Chris Arvier said northern Victoria would be in a La Niña weather pattern during summer and into the start of autumn.
This means warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in the Coral Sea off Queensland that would generally result in more rainfall for Australia’s eastern states.
This is good news regarding the likelihood of fires this season, with fewer than normal fire weather days, Mr Arvier said.
It would also bring a better-than-average chance of above-average rainfall for northern Victoria during the first part of the year.
Mr Arvier said there would be above-average rainfall during February, March and April.
The year is expected to start off “fairly dry”, with the extra rainfall not expected during January, Mr Arvier said.
The above-average rain is not forecast to cause any flooding issues in northern Victoria.
“Lots of dams were full after we had a wet spring,” Mr Arvier said.
“(But) it has been a dry December.
“The impact of any flooding risk has lessened.”
Daytime temperatures in the region would be about average for the first four months of the year.
There is a strong chance, however, that minimum overnight temperatures would be higher than average, according to Mr Arvier.
La Niña would also be responsible for these warmer temperatures, as increased cloud cover would mean the warm air would not escape as much as usual.
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