As the league ploughs through the dog days of June and the mid-season bye rounds, the plot is looking increasingly set.
The two words the AFL hates hearing are inevitable and irrelevant. The whole system is geared towards engineering volatile form and that most sacred four-letter word - hope.
But a comparison of the round-14 ladder to a year ago strongly suggests the gap between the haves and the have-nots won't shift much before September.
If anything, it could become a chasm.
Outside of the ninth-placed Western Bulldogs, who are a game out of the top eight but boast a healthier percentage than five teams above them, who might shake up the last 10 rounds?
At round 14 last season, Hawthorn were 12th and a game plus percentage outside the eight. Brisbane were 13th, a game and a half adrift.
This season's equivalents are injury-riddled Essendon and Sydney, with the Swans three games and percentage off eighth.
The Swans might be able to make a charge. The Bombers, about to blood their 11th debutant in 2025, are going nowhere.
This time a year ago, the Lions were one game into a 10-match winning streak that rocketed them into the finals.
After losing two of their last three games, they finished fifth to score a crucial home elimination final. Punctuated by the miracle semi-final comeback against GWS, they powered through September to the premiership.
Hawthorn at that stage were already well down the track of consigning last year's 0-5 start to history.
They ended the season with an 11-2 run and it took an epic semi-final against the Power at Adelaide Oval to end their charge.
The Bulldogs right now look the most likely to claw into finals contention, especially with Sam Darcy back, but their round-14 loss to Hawthorn was damning.
They are yet to beat a team currently in the top eight.
Tenth-placed Carlton and 11th side Port Adelaide have won their past two matches.
But the Blues have struggled to run out games and look highly vulnerable against good teams.
Every time Port have tried to build traction this season, a better team has mauled them.
While they should beat Sydney at home this Saturday, the Swans will fancy their chances of a momentum-building scalp.
Of the rest, the best-credentialed is 15th-placed Melbourne. Like Sydney they are three games outside the eight and handicapped by poor percentage.
The Demons should be in the conversation - they certainly have the talent. Three-straight losses mean they will need a massive turnaround to become a factor over the next two months.
If there is a bolter or two below the Bulldogs ready to put a rocket up the top eight, they are keeping their powder very dry - and it's high time for ignition.
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