The Cats privately cautioned against reading anything into Tuesday's absence, noting they have a five-day break and that Smith trained indoors.
But given their well-established habit of making late team changes, and the fact it's Smith, here is another angle for the potential match of the season.
Geelong will already be without captain Patrick Dangerfield and Jack Bowes because of hamstring injuries, while defensive general Tom Stewart could return from his knee problem.
The loss of Dangerfield means Smith's drive and pace becomes even more important to the Cats - provided he plays.
With the Bulldogs fifth and Geelong seventh on the ladder, this was already a big fixture. Geelong's Mitch Duncan will also play his 300th game.
Then Smith flicked a match into a can of petrol a fortnight ago, moments after the Cats had narrowly beaten Collingwood in front of a massive MCG crowd.
Smith cheekily said of the packed house "it's beautiful ... I'm not getting that in Ballarat".
Earlier that day, the Bulldogs had beaten Port in front of barely 5000 fans because of constructions works at their Ballarat venue.
Bulldogs captain Marcus Bontempelli chipped back, saying it was nice to know they're still on Smith's mind, and the latter duly posted a fish emoji to note his old skipper had taken the bait.
That prompted several stories about Smith's strained end to his time at the Bulldogs, when he could not play all last year while recovering from a knee reconstruction.
He was traded to the Cats and has thrived so far this season. And the Ballarat jibe has been far from his only controversy, with Smith fined twice for flipping the bird to opposition fans.
Coach Chris Scott probably wouldn't want to coach a whole team of Bailey Smiths, but he notes Cats fans rightly should shout from the roof tops about their star recruit.
Conversely, will there be any on-field treatment for Smith from his former teammates?
Smith's departure is one of several setbacks that the Bulldogs have overcome so far this year. Despite the loss of key forwards Jamarra Ugle-Hagan and Sam Darcy, they are the highest-scoring team.
Ugle-Hagan has not played this year and may be lost to the Bulldogs as he continues to struggle with off-field issues.
Darcy, the unicorn, was flying in the early rounds until he jarred a knee and won't be seen again until late in the season.
Bontempelli also missed the start of the season because of a calf injury. Coach Luke Beveridge is yet to re-sign.
Yet after they mauled Essendon last weekend, the Bulldogs will head down the highway with quite the head of steam.
Still, oddly, they need this win. A cursory look at the Bulldogs' form line shows their losses this year have all been against likely or predicted finalists - Collingwood, Â Fremantle, Brisbane and Gold Coast.
There would be no bigger scalp than the Cats, in Geelong, amid all the hype around their former teammate Smith.
As for the Cats, none of their four losses have been disasters, but likewise this is a key test. It comes a fortnight after they lost at home to GWS, again.
Whatever happens, it has the makings of a crossroads night for two of this year's most exciting teams.
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