“I always like to start with the first thing, which is the rainfall equation,” Ms Bunn said.
“To make it rain, you’ve got to have two things working together. You have to have moisture, and you have to have instability.”
While the Pacific Ocean remains neutral this year, meaning it’s neither in an El Niño nor La Niña phase, Ms Bunn said it was not significantly influencing weather patterns, positively or negatively.
However, warm waters off the coast of Queensland may offer some more local moisture to offset the Pacific’s inactivity.
The real potential is further west, she said.
“The Indian Ocean, over the last couple of weeks, it’s made a couple of changes. We can see it moving in action, which is great,” she said.
“It should be able to produce those north-west cloud bands that then run into low pressure and deliver really nice rain events, for us here in Victoria.”
It marks a welcome change from last year, when persistent high-pressure systems blocked rain from reaching many parts of the state.
Ms Bunn spoke about the importance of other climate drivers, including the Southern Annular Mode and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
Both play roles in directing cold fronts and carrying tropical moisture toward the region.
“We do care about [the MJO] because the tropics hold heaps and heaps of moisture, and moisture is one of those key ingredients for our rainfall equation,” she said.
As well as presenting the weather on Channel 7, Ms Bunn is well-known for appearing at regional events to talk all things weather.
She said she kept up her regional connections because of her passion for clear communication and practical weather advice.
“I went into the media side of things to remove the middleman and make sure the right message is getting through,” Ms Bunn said.
“I’m really passionate about improving our understanding of where our rain comes from, what is driving the season.”
Her app and website, Jane’s Weather, aims to provide useful forecasts for farmers and rural businesses.
As for the upcoming season in northern Victoria, Ms Bunn said residents should pay close attention to the evolving conditions in the Indian Ocean.
“If it continues to move in the direction that it is, then that helps us out here because it brings us not only a source of moisture, which we really, really need, but also, it helps move the high pressure out of the way,” she said.
“Then we have better chances of getting both that moisture and instability working together to bring us rain.”
The Here and Now workshops made their way through four regional towns, including Kyabram on Tuesday, July 22.
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