Coach Billy Slater will name Queensland's squad for Origin II on Monday morning, but AAP has been told Cherry-Evans will not feature in the 20-man group.
Instead Dearden will become the Maroons's next halfback, set to partner Cameron Munster in their must-win match in Perth next Wednesday.
Kurt Capewell has also earned a recall after being dropped for Origin I, set to come into the Maroons' side with Beau Fermor dropped.
Prop Tino Fa'asuamaleaui is also expected to be fine to play, after requiring a pain-killing injection to his sternum at halftime after a knock in Gold Coast's loss to Brisbane on Saturday.
But the call to leave Cherry-Evans out will easily be the biggest of Billy Slater's coaching tenure, and one of the most seismic in recent memory from either state.
Cherry-Evans has been the Maroons' first-choice No.7 and captain since 2019, taking Queensland to three series wins, including their incredible 2020 effort.
The 36-year-old has, however, come under fire since the Maroons' loss in Origin I, which marked their second straight defeat at Suncorp Stadium.
Queensland dropped Trevor Gillmeister when he was captain in the 1990s.
NSW last year made the call to drop James Tedesco for Origin I, before recalling him through injury and then leaving him out again for game two.
But neither state has decided to drop a captain from their side midway through a series this century.
Cherry-Evans' omission is even more significant considering only Wally Lewis, Darren Lockyer and Cameron Smith have captained more Origins for their state.
Dearden has won two of four games starting for the Maroons as a five-eighth, partnering Cherry-Evans in last year's series and in the 2023 dead rubber.
Queensland lock Pat Carrigan said he believed the North Queensland playmaker would be ready for the challenge.
"I played with Tommy when he debuted (for Brisbane) and his competitive nature hasn't changed," Maroons lock Carrigan said.
"He is playing great footy for the Cowboys, and you put him in a Queensland jersey and he just grows to another level as well.
"Whether it be Chez or it be Tommy, I know they can get the job done and we are going to need them to."
Carrigan also spoke highly of Cherry-Evans.
"Chez has done a lot for me not only as a footballer with advice but as a friend too. I love playing with him," he said.
"He is a great man with great values and I know all the boys really appreciate him a lot too.
"The big fella's footy speaks for itself. I know what the boys think of him and how Queensland rugby league thinks of him as well."
Slater must also weigh up who to bring in at No.14 and replace Dearden on the bench, with Kurt Mann the favourite to do so.
There have also been calls for Canberra forward Corey Horsburgh to come into the side, after the Maroons pack were out-muscled in Origin I.
"I thoroughly believe whoever gets picked in that team deserves to be there and can well and truly get it done," Carrigan said.
"We were our own worst enemy with some discipline things. I led the way.
"If we dial back that sort of aggression there are plenty of really good forwards to well and truly handle the job."
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