Potential declines in bee populations due to varroa mite infestation could jeopardise Australian horticultural production, according to Rabobank.
The agribusiness banking specialist says the parasitic varroa mite, which attacks European honey bees, was detected in NSW in 2022 and has since been deemed ineradicable.
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“The Australian Government considers the varroa mite one of the greatest threats to honeybee-pollinated horticulture in the country,” a Rabobank report released in May read.
In the report How varroa mites might impact Australian pollinators, the bank’s RaboResearch division said the threat came at a time when demand growth for pollination was outpacing growth in beehive numbers.
Report author and RaboResearch general manager Australia and New Zealand Stefan Vogel said many horticultural crops depended on pollinators.
“While not all require European honey bees, several key industries already face high demand for these pollinators and this demand is expected to increase,” he said.
“For example, European honey bees are essential for the almond, mango and macadamia sectors.”
According to the report, hive demand in Australia has tripled since 1990 to meet the strong growth in horticulture pollinator needs, especially for pollinating tree nuts. However, the number of commercially-managed hives has barely grown.
“Over the past three decades, the number of hives in Australia has remained relatively stagnant,” Mr Vogel said.
“And pollinator needs are forecast to continue to rise significantly due to the expanding horticultural areas in Australia.”
Some growth in the number of hives occurred in the years preceding the 2022 varroa mite outbreak, Mr Vogel said, primarily in recreational beekeeping.
“This slow growth falls short of the projected demand for pollinators in Australia, as we have modelled. We project a substantial increase in demand due to the expansion of commercial crop acreage requiring pollinators, particularly for tree crops such as almonds,” he said.
Mr Vogel said the bank had modelled a number of scenarios to determine the impact of varroa mites on Australian hive numbers, based on insights gained in other countries.
“These insights show that after a varroa mite outbreak in other countries like New Zealand and Canada, the hive numbers typically experience a significant decline in the first five years, followed by a recovery usually starting after six or more years,” he said.
The RaboResearch report said for Australia, if the situation mirrored the Canadian and New Zealand scenarios (an approximate eight per cent decline in hive numbers within four to five years), the pollination needs for 2025 would still be met. However, under the US scenario (a 25 per cent decline in hive numbers within seven years), they would not.
Mr Vogel said all scenarios indicated an Australian pollinator supply shortfall within three to five years due to the combined effects of the modelled varroa mite hive reduction and the strong growth of horticulture acreage.
“The trend is clear,” Mr Vogel said.
“The growth in the number of beehives has not kept pace with the increasing demand for pollinators.”
He said the small margin between the number of available pollinators and the calculated minimum required for effective pollination meant Australian horticulture crops which relied on bees for pollination were vulnerable.
Beekeeping challenges
Mr Vogel said tight beekeeper margins might pose future pollinator challenges.
“Increased beekeeping costs, due to varroa mite measures and inflated inputs like energy and labour costs, combined with continued pressure on honey prices from heavy import competition, could potentially drive-up pollination service fees to counter a heavy reduction in hive numbers,” he said.
Prices for Australian-produced honey have been declining for years, nearing the levels of imported honey, the report says.
“Nearly 20 per cent of Australia’s honey supply comes from imports, 45 per cent from small Australian producers and recreational beekeepers and 36 per cent from large Australian producers,” Mr Vogel said.
“In recent years, imports have increased, particularly low-priced products from China, Malaysia and Thailand.”
Mr Vogel said income from honey, wax and pollination services was crucial for beekeepers.
“However, beekeeping margins have been pressured by rising costs and declining honey prices. The additional expenses associated with managing the varroa mite further strain these margins and will likely lead to increased fees for pollination services,” he said.
Pollination strategies
There was a growing focus on the use of proactive pollination strategies, even among sectors that had traditionally relied on native bees and passive pollination, Mr Vogel said.
“The expected scarcity of pollinators underscores the need for effective pollination strategies,” he said.
The Rabobank report notes several key measures which could help prevent a future pollinator shortfall — increasing beehive numbers, facilitating bee movement, adopting alternative pollinator strategies and improving biodiversity.
“Firstly, hive numbers per commercial beekeeper need to grow significantly, along with improved management of pollinators by horticulture businesses,” Mr Vogel said.
“Moving bees across state borders is also key, especially during the peak pollination period from July to October, to ensure a substantial inflow of hives into Victoria’s horticulture sector.
“And beekeepers and the horticulture sector also need to look at adopting alternative pollinator strategies, such as using technologies like drones or robotics, breeding self-pollinating crops, using and attracting more native pollinators and having horticultural companies manage their own pollinators.”
Mr Vogel said while the varroa mite presented a formidable challenge, proactive measures and innovative strategies could help safeguard Australia’s pollination needs.
“Collaboration between beekeepers, horticultural businesses and policymakers will be essential to navigate this crisis and secure the future of pollination services in Australia,” he said.