An El Niño event remains likely for Australia but the weather bureau has stopped short of declaring it will definitely happen.
The Bureau of Meteorology released its latest climate driver update on August 1, stating an El Niño development was “considered likely” in the coming weeks.
But the forecast will remain at an alert stage until the next update on August 15.
An El Niño event increases the risk of drought, heatwaves and bushfires.
The bureau said sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean were currently exceeding the thresholds needed for an El Niño event, but the atmosphere patterns were pointing towards more neutral conditions.
Climate modelling suggests surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean will change in late winter or early spring, bringing less rainfall in winter and spring and exacerbating the drying influence from El Niño.
Regardless of the latest climate driver statement, the bureau is continuing to forecast warmer and drier conditions across the country from August to October.
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