Sport

The stats that matter for Goulburn Valley League premiership glory, and the clubs that are in the window in 2026

By Callum Farquhar

Aug 25, 2026

Kyabram was inside the News’ premiership window last year, and raised the cup on the final day. Photo by Megan Fisher

Data suggests it’s a three-horse race for the Goulburn Valley League premiership cup, but the remaining three outsiders each have their own respective credentials to the throne.

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Likewise to a similar column 12 months ago prior to the 2025 GVL finals series, this deep dive into previous GVL finals campaigns has identified key trends and metrics that could indicate the clubs that are inside the premiership window, and those which may be on the wrong side of history.

The identified trends were proven correct in 2025 when Kyabram gathered in the Deakin Reserve grandstand to hoist the premiership flag, while Rochester looked on dejectedly from Shepparton’s hallowed turf.

Kyabram sat in the premiership window last year, alongside Shepparton, for ranking in the top third of clubs (top four) for both most points for and least points against.

In the AFL, 18 of the past 20 premiers have ranked inside the top third (top six clubs) for their attacking and defensive prowess.

Additionally, all of the last 20 AFL premiers have at least ranked in the top six for points against.

In 2026, the GVL’s top two clubs Shepparton and Echuca are inside this premiership window.

The Bears rank first for points scored and second for least points conceded, while the Murray Bombers’ ranks are vice versa.

The Bears and Murray Bombers both feature in the ‘premiership window’. Photo by JORDAN TOWNROW

However, while no GVL club in the past decade has won from outside these parameters, Rochester defied history in 2025 by becoming the first club in the last 10 years to reach the grand final despite not being a top four scoring side.

Importantly, the Tigers ranked inside the top four for defence (first), and in 2026, two clubs can look to last year’s runner-up as inspiration for a grand final charge.

Elimination final opponents Seymour and Mooroopna are ranked fourth and third respectively for least points against, presenting a history-backed equation to reach the big dance.

Additionally, Seymour was just one kick shy of being a top four attacking team in 2026, and thus being in the premiership window, ranked fifth for points for, but only two behind fourth-ranked Mansfield, 1566 to 1568.

Another metric that has determined previous AFL and GVL premiers, is teams’ efficiency at converting inside 50 entries into scores.

In the AFL, the scoring shots per inside 50 statistic (SS/50) is a true indicator of the most dangerous attacking teams in the competition – it demonstrates that even if a club can’t generate a significant number of inside 50s, its forward mix still has the efficiency to convert a winning score.

Since 2020, nine of the 12 AFL grand finalists have ranked inside the competition’s top three for SS/50. On four of six occasions, the premier’s SS/50 rate has been four per cent better than the AFL’s average of that season.

To scale that on a GVL level, it means the top two for scoring efficiency are most likely to play in a grand final, while the select teams that average a rate four per cent greater than league average have a boosted chance of premiership success.

Across the last three seasons, two premiers and two runners-up have met these standards, including Kyabram in 2025.

The GVL’s SS/50 average was 48 per cent in 2025, with the Bombers’ efficiency 5.6 per cent greater.

In 2026, data suggests the Bears and Lions are in this premiership window.

The GVL’s SS/50 average in 2026 was 46 per cent, with Seymour leading the league with a conversion rate of 52.1 per cent, and Shepparton next in line with a rate of 50.1 per cent - both of which are more than four per cent better than league average, solidifying each team as premiership contenders.

Seymour is the GVL’s most efficient attacking side, which bodes well when compared to recent premiers. Photo by Rechelle Zammit

For Kyabram, history suggests there is a possibility the Bombers can get as far as the decider to maintain its title defence.

In 2013, Shepparton United finished fifth on the GVL ladder, as Kyabram is in 2026, and ranked in the top four for points scored but not for least points conceded.

It is an identical scenario for Kyabram this year, which is ranked third for points for, but fifth for points against.

As for Shepparton Swans, they’ll have to defy all kinds of odds.

Only three teams since 2010 have qualified for finals with a percentage below 100, Mooroopna in 2014, the Swans themselves in 2016, and Seymour in 2019.

All three sides lost their respective elimination finals.

However, the Swans should believe in their ability to close out tight games.

A 5-1 record, plus a draw, in games decided by three goals or less, is the most in the GVL this year, and the second best winning percentage of any finalist, behind only Echuca’s perfect 4-0 close game record.

So if a finals game is hanging in the balance in the last quarter, clutch experience could be advantageous to the red and white's premiership dream.

This weekend’s One FM 98.5 broadcasts are Saturday’s KDL qualifying final between Nagambie and Lancaster, live from Nagambie at 2:00pm, and Sunday’s GVL elimination final between Shepp Swans and Kyabram, live from Euroa at 1:30pm.