That’s the state of play in the Goulburn Valley League as the home-and-away season ticks into its final weekend — and while the equation looks simple, the reality is layered.
The top five is set in stone: Shepparton, Euroa, Seymour, Tatura and Mooroopna are all guaranteed to feature in the post-season.
Stray beyond that, and things get juicy.
Echuca (sixth), Shepparton United (seventh) and Shepparton Swans (eighth) all have a mathematical chance of locking in that precious last finals spot — and despite their ladder position, it’s the Swans looking likeliest to pounce.
Their final-round opponent is Kyabram, a side languishing second-from-bottom and well out of contention.
It’s not a free hit — nothing is in August — but if you had to pick an opponent with your season on the line, the Bombers would be near the top of the list.
Shepparton Swans coach Jana Riordan shared the thought processes beaming around Princess Park heading into round 18.
“It’s great that we’re in the race; I think we probably would reflect and feel a little bit disappointed we hadn’t clearly got ourselves in with some of our close losses,” she said.
“But the fact that it’s still a possibility, or probability, is exciting.
“We know we’ve got to go out and play good netball, try and have a really good win and give ourselves the best opportunity we can.”
A percentage-boosting Swans win, combined with results elsewhere, could be enough to catapult them into September.
Echuca, for now, controls its own fate.
The Murray Bombers occupy sixth spot on 32 points, but face a dangerous test in Mooroopna, the competition’s fifth-placed team and already finals-bound.
Win, and Echuca locks the door.
Lose, and they risk leaving it ajar for the Swans.
And then there’s Shepparton United.
The Demons sit seventh on the ladder with 28 points, still in with a sniff but with the toughest assignment of all: Euroa.
The reigning premier, sitting second, is hardened, organised and unlikely to take the foot off the pedal before finals, and United will need an upset of season-defining proportions just to stay in the conversation.
Euroa proved too much to handle for the Swans in the previous round, and though the margin was only nine goals, Riordan said her side wasn’t far off the mark.
“I think we let ourselves down a little bit in the second quarter — I think we lost that by seven - but outside of that, I thought we were really competitive,” she said.
“We had a great run against Seymour and then the two matches after that felt hard.
“We’re at the end of winter where everything feels really hard so I know the girls mentally were struggling, but it was nice to come off a bye refreshed and have a really good hit out.
“I know if we can bring that netball again this week, then we should have a good win.”
It all sets up as the quintessential final round scenario — three clubs clinging to the same patch of turf, with only one invited to keep running into September.
The Swans have the softest draw, Echuca has control, and United has the mountain.
By Saturday evening, one team will have survived the scramble.
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