Outside The Box: AFL 2020 betting preview

I'll remind you this is the same champ-champ column franchise that profited a lazy $197.25 from $250 worth of Super Bowl bets this year — OTB is a known money-making empire, so we're going to dish out $250 worth of investments to track throughout the year.

Premiers

West Coast ($7)

From the moment the Eagles picked up the genuinely creamy footballer that is Tim Kelly, we've had our eye on them for this year's flag. You'd expect after somewhat of a premiership-hungover 2018 the Eagles are back to their motivated selves, and adding in Kelly to a midfield that already consisted of Luke Shuey, Andrew Gaff and Elliott Yeo among others takes them from an A+ to an A . Up forward, they still have one of the best one-two key punches with Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, while Liam Ryan has the sort of x-factor that wins flags — he's already shown that on grand final day. Realistically, the Eagles have shown they can win big games on the MCG and are a better and more motivated side than last year, so $7 is the value play.

Brisbane ($15)

I've big-upped the Lions for a couple of years now; I declared them as a top-eight side before last season when no-one believed in them, and I think this is the season they win multiple finals. It's a pretty similar look list-wise with Grant Birchall and Callum Ah Chee the only real additions, so I'm banking on another year of growth to a young list that has been brilliantly compiled. But we're big on motivational factors, and I think the finals heartbreak the Lions suffered will be burning deep within them throughout this shortened season. If the premier is coming from outside the bookmakers’ top three (Richmond, Collingwood and West Coast), it will certainly be the Lions.

Brownlow Medal

Lachie Neale (Bris) ($11)

If the Lions are going to have as big a year as we expect, lethal Lachie Neale will be leading the way. He racked up 26 votes last season via pure accumulation — he averaged seven more disposals than any of his teammates for a team that finished second on the ladder — and if he hits the scoreboard this year, he will go mighty close. $11 for the bloke that finished in a tie for third last year seems a gift from the gambling gods.

Dustin Martin (Rich) ($8)

I'm not sure this is the best price for Dusty, but he should be around the mark again. His statistical output last year was absurd (26 disposals and more than a goal a game) and as the most eye-catching player in a Richmond side that produces wins for fun, there are many worse bets.

Josh Dunkley (WB) ($51)

This is pure gut-feel. We know about his two higher-profile teammates who out-voted him last year (Marcus Bontempelli and Jack Macrae), but this lad Dunkley had more disposals than Bont, more goals than Jack and more tackles than both. What Dunkley brings to the Dogs is under-appreciated by many, but if he gets a bit more attention, don't forget he already picked up 15 votes last season. One to watch.

Coleman Medal

Jeremy Cameron (GWS) ($4)

Admittedly a bit boring, but it's also a no-brainer. He kicked three first-up, he's just turned 27, so he's really just hitting his genuine prime and he slotted 76 big ones last year. The Giants will be in the top-four hunt and their liquid midfield will continue to put it on a platter for him. For mine, a far better wager than Tom Lynch ($4.50) and Ben Brown ($7) — the situations for all three seem exactly the same this season, and JC outscored them comfortably last season.

Josh Kennedy (WC) ($9)

This is the great man's last chance to win an award he's already won twice — but if the Eagles produce like we're predicting, he certainly will be firing. This will be a small play as you could already make the argument the 32-year-old has passed his prime, giving last year was his worst goals per game season since 2012.

Rising Star

Matt Rowell ($3)

Again, it's not really the OTB way to be taking favourites, but this is free money. Rowell is basically a replica of last year's winner Sam Walsh — a midfielder ready to step in and look the part for an inept side. They don't reward winning in Rising Star voting, and Rowell impressed first-up with 19 disposals, four tackles and three clearances against West Coast.

Sam Sturt ($15)

We don't know an awful lot about this bloke other than he's a SuperCoach must-have, and he's already nominated for the award. Kicked three goals from 10 disposals against Essendon in round one, and if he keeps that up, $15 will be long-gone by the end of the season.

Assorted props

Hawthorn to miss the eight ($2)

Just truly unconvinced as to how the Hawks have improved from a side that went 11-11 last season. Firstly, disregard round one; given the coronavirus craziness around that upset win against Brisbane means little, and don't tell me Jonathan Patton makes them a noticeably better side, the bloke hasn't played in more than a year and underwhelmed for seven before that as a one goal a game forward. I expect Port Adelaide, Melbourne and even Sydney to be challenging for the eight in front of the Hawks.

Essendon to make the eight ($2.37)

And you can't even call me biased on this one because, despite supporting Essendon, I literally hate the Bombers. I just think there's so much room for improvement on last year's side, which despite having an up-and-down year won 12 games and played a final. Ben Rutten (team defence) and Blake Caracella (ball movement) will be revamping this team from a coaching perspective (it wouldn't be hard to be a better coach than John Worsfold), and the raw materials are there for a top-four contender.

Staking plan

West Coast premiers — $50 @ $7

Brisbane premiers — $25 @ $15

Lachie Neale Brownlow — $20 @ $11

Dustin Martin Brownlow — $20 @ $8

Josh Dunkley Brownlow — $10 @ $51

Jeremy Cameron Coleman — $35 @ $4

Josh Kennedy Coleman — $15 @ $9

Matt Rowell Rising Star — $40 @ $3

Sam Sturt Rising Star — $10 @ $15

Hawthorn to miss the eight — $25 @ $2

Essendon to make the eight — $25 @ $2.37