With nothing listed as driving prices up, several circumstances are bringing prices down, including recent rain
“Rainfall across southern Australia last week is expected to support spring growth, easing immediate pressure on fodder demand, the report said.
“If follow-up rain arrives, buyers may hold off longer.
“Many domestic buyers are waiting for fresh supply, not realising new-season hay may not hit sheds until mid to late October.”
Specific weather events listed included a series of cold fronts that delivered widespread rainfall to southern Australia.
Elevated parts of Victoria and Tasmania received over 100mm of rainfall.
August rainfall was near average across much of the country, but remained severely low, in the lowest five to 10 per cent across large areas of southern SA and western to central Victoria.
Looking at the Goulburn and Murray valleys, recent rain has improved growing conditions, but a dry autumn set crops back, and many pastures remain behind typical growth stages.
With cutting likely to be staggered or delayed, there is a chance of short-term supply tightness as the season progresses, which may place some upward pressure on early hay prices.
Limited hay has been entering the market in comparison to other hay-growing regions, but shedded oaten hay is selling for between $400 and $450 per tonne online.
After the sharp decline of cereal, lucerne and pasture hay last week, prices this week have fallen only moderately.
Prices decreased in early September.
Looking ahead, the Bureau of Meteorology’s spring outlook (September to November) shows a 60 to 80 per cent chance of above-median rainfall across the eastern half of Australia.
The bureau says there is an increased risk of flooding during heavy rainfall on the east coast of New South Wales and south east Queensland following a wetter than usual year in these regions.
The weather patterns could help drive spring growth and support later hay cuts in the eastern states, ensuring expected domestic hay demands are met if rainfall lands well.
Above average rainfall is likely for most of Victoria, apart from some eastern parts of the state.
Average spring rainfall in recent decades has been between 100 and 300 mm for most of the state, increasing to 400 mm over the Great Dividing Range.
The bureau says daytime temperatures are very likely to be higher than usual throughout much of Victoria.
Warmer than usual nights are very likely throughout the state.
Keep up to date with the most recent reports at afia.org.au/category/hay-reports
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