Voters in the Darwin electorate of Nightcliff go to the polls on Saturday in a by-election triggered by the resignation of Greens MP Kat McNamara, citing health reasons.
The Greens are determined to retain their first seat in the Northern Territory parliament but Labor is equally determined to wrest it back after previously holding it since 2001.
The governing Country Liberal Party (CLP) is not expected to win the progressive city seat but hopes a good vote count will be seen as an endorsement of its tough-on-crime policies.
The Labor opposition has only four seats in the 25-seat parliament and wants a fifth to start a comeback from its 2024 election thrashing by the CLP.
Former Labor chief minister Natasha Fyles lost Nightcliff despite holding it by a margin of 24.3 per cent.
Ms McNamara won the seat in Darwin's northern suburbs by only 36 votes in 2024.
The four candidates are Ed Smelt for Labor, Anjan Paudel for the CLP, Suki Dorras-Walker for the Greens and Phil Scott, an independent.
Charles Darwin University political economist Rolf Gerritsen said the by-election was vital to the Greens because it was their breakthrough first seat.
"It's vital to Labor because it's extremely hard to win a territory election without any metropolitan members," he told AAP.
The CLP's tough law-and-order pitch resonated with voters.
"The crime issue is still there but the CLP has negated it in the short term by locking everybody up," Prof Gerritsen said.
Nightcliff was equivalent to "inner west" seats in larger cities where people were concerned about environmental and energy issues.
The seat had a high proportion of young educated professionals paying high rent in a city that has become more middle class, Prof Gerritsen said.
"Darwin has changed over the decades from the 1980s when naked mud wrestling was a popular form of entertainment to the present day when it is probably book clubs."
In recent weeks, Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro has been criticised for appointing former NT Cattlemen's Association president David Connolly as the new NT administrator.
It emerged his now-deleted social media posts ridiculed Indigenous and transgender people, women and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
Prof Gerritsen said the controversy would hurt the CLP in Nightcliff as "some CLP people will just not bother to vote because they'll think that was a misstep".
Labor says it is taking the CLP to account over its law and order policy, health care and Mr Connolly's appointment.
Part of Labor's woes at the previous election were put down to its support for the gas industry when in government, a stance not appreciated by many progressive constituents.
Mr Smelt, standing for Labor, has said the gas industry had a role to play in the NT but renewables should be the focus.
Ms Dorass-Walker told AAP many voters wanted to see an end to gas expansion, particularly fracking, and a less punitive approach to crime.
Prof Gerritsen picks Labor to win but suspects it will take two elections to get back into power.
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