The approving legislation for the $1.13 billion Macquarie Point development is headed for Tasmania's parliament in November, with an all-important vote in the upper house due in early December.
It's a highly contentious project, opposed by a majority of Tasmanians, according to opinion polling.
However, with the AFL mandating the stadium as a condition of the Tasmania Devils entering the league in 2028, it has government support and, most likely will, proceed.
On Friday, 18 elected mayors and MPs made a last-gasp plea to the AFL to reconsider the need for the stadium after a damning planning report.
Tasmanian Greens deputy leader Vica Bayley said their opposition would continue through the parliamentary process and beyond.
"We're never going to stop fighting against this stadium," he said.
Others forecast an uglier spectacle, given the animosity fuelling the debate.
Author Richard Flanagan is one high-profile Tasmanian who wants the plans thrown out, tipping mass protests on the site should the bill get through.
"What you will see is direct stadium on the stadium site," he told the 7am podcast.
"You'll see homeless people (and) health activists chaining themselves to machinery.
"You'll see the state responds as it does down here by imprisoning these people and then you're going to get rage.
"If the AFL really wants to go to war with the people of Tasmania, that's where we're heading if this stadium goes ahead.
"If parliament approves it, it won't be the end of the story, but only the beginning of a more bitter chapter."
Given the minority Liberal government and Labor opposition support the stadium, the project will be decided in Tasmania's independent-heavy upper house.
It's likely to need three of the eight crossbenchers to pass.
Three - Rosemary Armitage, Mike Gaffney and Meg Webb - say they won't vote for it, with another fiscally minded independent - Ruth Forrest - considered unlikely.
Two - Tania Rattray and Casey Hiscutt - have offered warm statements towards the mega-project and are seen as likely backers.
That leaves the fate of the stadium resting on two: former mayor Bec Thomas and ex-builder Dean Harriss.
Mr Harriss has kept a low profile during the debate, refusing comment for months.
Ms Thomas says she's working through government-provided plans and will give private feedback before a final call.
"I recognise it's crunch time," she told AAP.
"I appreciate people's patience as I work through this decision, understanding it will have significant and generational impacts, whichever way it goes."
There is huge pressure on the independents as they consider their positions.
Stadium backers implore them to secure the state's long-held AFL dream and revitalise a moribund economy.
Opponents point to the fiscal impost on the already imperilled state budget, the damning planning report and problems with the site.
Ms Webb said the "vast majority of of those coming into my inbox are telling me to vote against it".
"I don't know what actions would come into play if this passes parliament and construction begins, but I know people won't see that as the end of it," she said.
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