National

One Nation forecast to become federal opposition: poll

Mar 20, 2026

PAULINE HANSON SENATE — Pauline Hanson's One Nation is projected to win between 46 and 55 seats in an election. -AAP Image

The federal coalition's electoral woes could worsen, with a new poll forecasting the opposition to hold fewer than 10 seats in parliament if an election was held.

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A DemosAU poll released on Friday of more than 8400 people showed the coalition could win between nine and 17 seats, while One Nation would become the official opposition, with Pauline Hanson's party projected to win between 46 and 55 electorates.

If an election was held imminently, Labor would win a third term in government, but with a smaller majority, with forecasts of between 77 and 86 seats in the lower house.

The poll, which used modelling to gain predictions for all 150 federal electorates, showed One Nation taking the lead in nearly all electorates held by the Liberals and Nationals, including Opposition Leader Angus Taylor's seat of Hume.

One Nation was also projected to be ahead in some regional electorates held by Labor, such as Gilmore in NSW, Leichhardt in Queensland, Braddon in Tasmania and Hunter in NSW.

DemosAU director of research George Hasanakos said if the results of the poll held true, the Liberals would be relegated to the cross bench.

"We also see One Nation making inroads in the Labor vote in the urban fringes of several capital cities including Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne - places which have many new residents priced out of housing elsewhere," he said.

"Labor is dominant in the inner to middle rings of capital cities but would have a fight on their hands in those urban fringes and in regional seats on these numbers."

The polling is the latest round of voter surveys to show a rise in support for One Nation at the expense of the coalition.

The latest Newspoll showed One Nation having a higher primary vote than the coalition, with the opposition in third place.

Pauline Hanson's party is tipped to make inroads in the South Australian election on Saturday.

Mr Hasanakos said it was too early to tell if the momentum behind One Nation was sustainable between now and the next election, which is not due to be held until 2028 at the latest.

"The surge in support has certainly sent a message to the major parties and we can expect the coalition especially to focus its efforts on winning back the voters it has lost to One Nation," he said.

"That process has already started with the leadership of the coalition parties switching to Angus Taylor for the Liberals and Matt Canavan for the Nationals, both of whom could be seen as more appealing to the cohort of voters lost to One Nation than their predecessors."