Three shots were fired from a parked Toyota Hilux into a crowd sitting outside the shisha bar and cafe in Altona North, in Melbourne's southeast, late on Tuesday evening.
A 49-year-old man was hit twice in the arm and taken to hospital with non-life-threatening wounds.
The third shot was later found lodged inside a nearby vehicle.
The Hilux, which had cloned plates after being stolen from Newport on February 22, was found ablaze several hours later fewer than 400 metres away.
Security footage from outside the venue showed men ducking for cover and fleeing inside as the shots rung out.
"It is quite confronting," said Detective Inspector Graham Banks from the Gang Crime Squad on Wednesday.
"It is clear when you look at that CCTV footage that it is a very indiscriminate shooting."
Police believe the shooting is linked to Victoria's illicit tobacco trade but would not detail the intelligence behind its hunch.
"The crime has been directed by someone," Det Insp Banks said
"A group of people take up a contract to undertake the act and there's not a lot of further intelligence gathering going into it before they do it."
It was likely more than one person was inside the parked car when the shooting occurred, Det Insp Banks said.
The wounded victim was known to police but they were not sure whether he was the intended target.
"It may well be just a random shooting of that crowd of people to send a message," Det Insp Banks said.
Demand for illegal tobacco has exploded in Australia following large tax increases on legal products, pushing up the price of a legal cigarettes pack towards $50 and prompting a rise in black market activity.
There has been at least 134 tobacco store fires and another 30 blazes involving cars, restaurants and other venues in Victoria since March 2023 as criminal syndicates compete for their slice of the market.
A Glenroy barber shop was torched by arsonists in the early hours of Tuesday after a staff member was previously stabbed inside the venue.
The business is two doors down from a tobacconist that has been the target of multiple firebombings and a drive-by shooting.
The Gang Crime Squad, formerly Taskforce Lunar, has executed more than 350 raids and made at least 212 arrests for offending connected to crime groups involved in the illegal tobacco trade.
More than $50 million worth of cash, illegal cigarettes, tobacco and vapes has also been seized.
Tobacco retailers were unregulated in Victoria until enforcement began on a licensing scheme in February.
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