Hot, dry summer impacts crops

The area planted to summer crops in 2025-26 is estimated to have decreased by 3 per cent to 1.3 million hectares, reflecting lower irrigation water allocations and increased water prices in some regions and below-average soil moisture levels later in the planting window.

Sorghum production is forecast to fall by 6 per cent to 2.5 million tonnes in 2025-26, still 7 per cent above the five-year average to 2024-25.

Despite an estimated 11 per cent increase in total area planted to sorghum and average soil moisture levels at the start of the planting window, below-average summer rainfall and well above-average temperatures have limited yields.

Average yields are estimated to be down 16 per cent compared to 2024-25, but are still close to the five-year average to 2024-25.

The reduction in planted area reflects falls in both New South Wales and Queensland. Average yields are expected to fall from near record levels in 2024-25.

Variable water availability and rainfall across much of eastern Australia has led to a 6 per cent fall in yield. Despite this, aggregate yields are expected to be 2 per cent above the five-year average to 2024-25.

Rice production is forecast to fall by 66 per cent to 178,000 tonnes in 2025-26, as a result of a decline in area planted in New South Wales.

The fall in area planted was driven by a reduction in general security water allocations, and an increase in irrigation water prices.

This is 15 per cent above the five-year average to 2024-25 of 59.5 million tonnes and is the second highest result on record. While national winter crop production is estimated to increase overall, conditions were mixed across Australian winter cropping regions.

The crop report says in New South Wales, winter crop production is estimated to have fallen by 10 per cent, reflecting both a fall in the areas planted and lower winter crop yields.

Favourable conditions in parts of central and northern New South Wales have been more than offset by well below-average conditions across southern New South Wales.

Winter crop production in Victoria is estimated to have increased by 30 per cent to 10.1 million tonnes in 2025-26, the third highest on record.

This represents a 11 per cent upward revision from the December 2025 Australian Crop Report and now sits 4 per cent above the five-year average to 2024-25 of 9.7 million tonnes. This near-record harvest reflects continued high area planted to winter crops and average yields.