Construction of a roofed stadium at Macquarie Point in Hobart is a condition of the Tasmania Devils entering the AFL and AFLW in 2028.
The $1.13 billion project requires the approval of both houses of state parliament to proceed, with debate under way in the lower house.
It is expected to pass the chamber on Thursday night with the support of the governing Liberals and Labor opposition.
However, it faces a far trickier passage in the upper house in December when a handful of independent MPs will decide its fate.
The stadium proposal was inviting Tasmania to be bold, ambitious and forward-looking, Minister for Macquarie Point Urban Renewal Eric Abetz said.
Doors would slam closed in the face of aspirational young people if it did not go ahead, he said.
"Confidence will be shattered and our self-esteem as a state will be trashed," Mr Abetz said.
"The message will be: don't try and do business in Tasmania."
Labor leader Josh Willie confirmed his party would vote for the order to build the stadium, even though the Liberals' management of the project had been "abysmal" and the journey unnecessarily divisive.
"We do not trust the government to deliver, but that doesn't mean Tasmania should miss out on opportunities," Mr Willie said.
"We understand this project is critical in securing the AFL and AFLW licence our state has dreamt about ... for decades."
Mr Willie, whose party at one point said it would try to renegotiate the stadium deal if elected, said the AFL commission stood ready to pull the pin on the Devils if the venue wasn't built.
The AFL has maintained a "no stadium, no team" mantra.
The stadium has split the community and drawn political battlelines amid rising budget debt and criticism the venue is not the right priority.
Mr Abetz said the stadium could be like the Eiffel Tower, which was initially opposed by some but now beloved.
Criticism of the state government's ability to deliver infrastructure, such as two new delayed and over-budget Spirit of Tasmania ferries, was a "fair cop", Mr Abetz said.
"(But) if you fall over, does that mean you never get up again?" he said.
Greens leader Rosalie Woodruff, whose party will vote against the stadium, said the government had caved to the AFL and agreed to build a shiny, vanity project
"We have already more than earned the right to join the league, without the strings of a $1 billion stadium attached," she said.
The state will contribute $375 million in capital to the stadium, the Commonwealth $240 million and the AFL $15 million, with the remainder to be state borrowings.
The state's planning commission recently recommended the project not go ahead because its costs outweighed the benefits and it was not the right fit for the waterfront heritage area.
Despite the political turmoil, the Devils have pushed on with building a club and have started training for entry in the second-tier VFL in 2026.
The government faces financial penalties if the stadium is not ready by the club's second season in 2029.
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