Payney’s Punt | Caulfield races preview

By Aydin Payne

They say sometimes you can create your own luck.

Whether it be finding that elusive four-leaf clover, carrying around a rabbit foot or even a lucky dice.

But a mate of mine was able to make his own luck during the week through sheer persistence and hard work.

After a few dirty rotten weeks on the punt — to closely resemble this columnist — Deano finally got reward for effort and danced his way home.

Hang in there punters and Deano if you are reading this — stop now to continue your lucky streak.

Let's get stuck into tomorrow's nine-race card at Caulfield, headlined by the Group Three Sir John Monash Stakes.

Expect a few showers today and tomorrow, which will have the track rated at least a Soft 6 and the rail will be in its true position.

If you are dipping into the money jar and taking up residence on the couch tomorrow, please remember to gamble responsibly.

Race 1. 11.50 am — Super Vobis 2-Y-O (1400 m)

Although it's a small field there are a few strong chances in the opener. Wunambal (2) won its last start in nice fashion and Felon (1) won on debut when favourite and draws to do no work. We have gone wide and circled Confrontational (5) who can surprise and get in the money. Looks a great each-way play. Beat home Wunambal on debut to place second, and finished third last start over 1600 m and the drop back in trip should suit. Is third-up here and will be better off for past runs.

Top tip: Confrontational EW

Race 2. 12.25 pm — BM90 (1100 m)

Expect All Over Bosanova (1) to lead from the middle barriers. Our Campana (3) gets the inside barrier and should be able to find a suitable spot off the pace. The Peter Moody-trained runner is resuming tomorrow and boasts a 12-5-2-1 record. Has won twice at this distance and has built a handy record in the wet. All Over Bosanova finished two lengths behind Prezado when resuming and was unlucky last start. Gets blinkers on for the first time.

Top tip: Our Campana

Race 3. 1 pm — BM78 (1400 m)

A tough assignment here, expect Sonaree (1), 10, 7 and 12 to push forward. Kaplumpich (3) has been racing well without winning. Has three placings in his past four starts. With a close second to Heptagon at this track in May. Finished third behind Heavenly Emperor last start. Apprentice claim will help and might be worth one last shot. Strategic Phil (2) missed out last start to go back-to-back and looks a juicy one at nice odds. Should be able to find a spot behind the leaders and run on the pace.

Top tip: Kaplumpich

Race 4. 1.35 pm — Hcp (1400 m)

A lot of love for Morrissy (5) in this. Looks well-placed to make it back-to-back wins. The gelding was a dominant winner over 1440 m here last start. Has been in great form. Lindsay Smith-trained Superhard (4) could be a sharp improver up to 1400 m. He was ridden close over 1100 m last start and didn't really finish off, but he might be looking for this longer journey now. Has form at this trip with two wins. Kings Brook (6) can handle the wet, with five wins from 11 coming on soft ground. Apprentice claim has her drop 3 kg. Looks a great chance.

Top tip: Morrissy

Race 5. 2.14 pm — Super Vobis 3-Y-O (1400 m)

Interesting race with the two favourites set to push across from the wide barriers and lead. Mystery Shot (2) and Terrace House (7) are the two to beat, but will they use too much petrol working over? Mystery Shot is undefeated from three races, while Terrace House has two wins and a third. Both challengers can get it done in the wet. Mick Price's Scorpius (6) finished third behind Mystery Shot last start. Will be there abouts. Leale (5) looks set to find a nice run from barrier three, won her only start at this track and distance. Forget last run. Has form in the wet and we are going for an upset.

Top tip: Leale

Race 6. 2.55 pm — Super Vobis 3-Y-O (2000 m)

Expecting a hard-fought battle here, with Right You Are (2) and Grand De Flora (3) going head-to-head. The former was terrific last start charging home for second behind Persan over this trip. Persan has since won again at Flemington. That looks the right form. The latter is searching for a hat-trick and steps out past 1600 m for the first time. No doubts about the filly being able to run out the trip.

Top tip: Right You Are

Race 7. 3.35 pm — Sir John Monash Stakes (1100 m)

The feature race on the card should have a fast tempo with Tavisan (7) and Jungle Edge (1) to push forward. Veteran Jungle Edge is an experienced wet-tracker, won the McKay Stakes at Morphettville in May. Hard to go past Viridine (2) who won last start on a Heavy 9 in the Winter Dash at Royal Randwick. Should find an easy run from barrier two behind a quick tempo. Carries less weight here and maps to win this. I Am Someone (6) is on a short turnaround, but was unlucky last start and excels at this distance. Loves the wet ground too. And must respect Tavisan who put in a disappointing performance last start, but won here over this trip on good ground.

Top tip: Viridine

Race 8. 4.10 pm — 3-Y-O Fillies (1100 m)

A tough race to predict, but expect a fast tempo with Flostar (2) 13, 11 and 7 to lead. Flostar was favourite last start, but was just nosed out on the line. She was impressive scoring by more than four lengths prior and can bounce back. Sizzlefly (1) comes back fresh, which is a huge tick given her first-up record 3:3-0-0. Impressed in a recent jump-out and will find this easier than the Group Two where she finished seventh last start. Handles all surfaces and Stockdale's claim is a plus.

Top tip: Sizzlefly

Race 9. 4.43 pm — BM84 (1700 m)

An extremely tough race, a genuine grab the darts and have a ping race. Triple Strip (14) hit the line nicely at her first start for Patrick Payne, finishing fourth over 1420 m. Looks better suited over this trip and Billy Egan jumping aboard is an obvious positive. Does her best work late and can handle the soft ground. Check to see how the track races to see if the backmarker is in with a chance. Heavenly Emperor (6) won well here last start, but was aided by on-pace bias. Has drawn a wide barrier, but handles soft ground well. Dogmatic (11) looks a good value bet, goes well at Caulfield and has a win and a second at this trip. Has won five of eight on soft ground. Finished midfield, but worked home strongly when fresh over 1400 m and has won second-up before.

Top tip: Dogmatic

Best of the Day

When: Tomorrow

Where: Caulfield

Race 2. Our Campana (3)