Outside The Box: Derby Day tips

While four of us are bona fide mugs, we have enlisted the big gun that is the 1984 Donald Cup-winning jockey Ronnie Anderson to bring some genuine expertise to the subject.

Here are the rules; each participant gets $250 for the week to bet with across the four jam-packed days of racing, and whoever ends the week with the most coin is the competition's inaugural champion.

Without further ado, let's rip into some winners.

Alex Mitchell (Outside The Box)

My method here is to try and jag a winner on Derby Day that will allow me some capital for later in the week. I don't really believe in place betting, so we are plonking most of the coin straight on the hooters, with one at odds later in the day to blow the competition right open.

Bet one - Flemington R5, #2 Melody Belle - $25 to win @ $3.50: Melody Belle has won three New Zealand Group Ones at her past three starts, including one at this distance, and I expect the foreign raider to stroll this one in.

Bet two - Flemington R7, #1 Shadow Hero - $50 to win @ $3.20: Won the Spring Champion Stakes with ease and expecting a different result tomorrow would be foolish. Beat Castelvecchio in that race and that went on to run an impressive second in the Cox Plate, so Shadow Hero is clearly my best of the day.

Bet three - Flemington R8, #9 So Si Bon - $25 each way @ $23/$7: A little birdy at Lindsay Park tells me this six-year-old has been absolutely tearing up the track, and at these odds you have to nibble. Look at the form this prep - won the Group Three Aurie's Star on a heavy eight, slashed home for second in the Group One Memsie Stakes, before an impressive fifth in the Group One Sir Rupert Clarke. Forgive the last start and get on. Each-way all day.

Tyler Maher (Maher's Musings)

Since the only form this columnist does these days is for my Supercoach Racing stable, the spring betting strategy will follow that line of thinking. With five Group One races to pick from tomorrow there is a veritable smorgasbord of top quality racing on offer, but we won’t be burning all of our $250 bank first-up.

Bet one – Flemington R2, #1 Flit - $20 to win @ $2.50: At $2.50 to take out the Group Two Wakeful Stakes, slip a lobster on Flit and watch her reel in the field down the long Flemington straight.

Bet two – Flemington R5, #13 Angelic Ruler - $15 each way @ $16/$4.60: Awkward gate jumping from the 15, but at Flemington all that means is better odds. Angelic Ruler has been placed all three runs this prep, but more importantly has been placed all three runs in the wet in its career. Snaffle up the $16 a win and $4.60 a place with $15 each way.

Bet three – Flemington R6, #2 Bivouac; Flemington R7, #1, Shadow Hero; Rosehill R7, #4 The Inevitable - $25 place multi @ $6.74: Expect all three of these horses to be in the finish in their respective races, and the best way to take advantage of that is to whack them in a place multi. You can get $1.55 for Bivouac, $1.50 for Shadow Hero and $2.90 for The Inevitable for $6.74 odds. Chuck $25 on it and that will do us for Derby Day. All up that’s a $75 outlay across three bets, using up almost a third of our bank.

Aydin Payne (Payney's Punt)

I have come out of retirement after tipping the card at Seymour last month, as my punting career will never get any better than that. Here are my Saturday selections - aside from potential winnings I have splurged one avocado.

Bet one - Flemington R1, #4 Zoutori - $50 win @ $2.20

I am looking to start Derby Day with a guaranteed collect from the bookies by backing one of my favourite sprinters in Zoutori. The four-year-old gelding loves the 1200m distance with three wins and two placings from five attempts and saluted down the straight before a spirited placing last start behind premier sprinter Santa Ana Lane. Look for the red and white stripes to be first past the post.

Bet two - Flemington R5, box trifecta 2,9,15 - $10 for 160%

I have gone outside the box here (pun included) and looked for a bit of fun in the first Group One of the day. You can lock in Kiwi runner Melody Belle (2) to grab a placing with three wins from four attempts at this distance and enters with winning form – which we all know is good form. The other two runners are Pohutukawa (9) and Fidelia (15) and I think that Pohutukawa will relish the mile. And I have thrown in Fidelia due to her hitting the line at great pace and I have a soft spot for greys – the wide barrier is only query.

Bet three - Flemington R9, #4 Pippie - $20 each way @ $4.60/$2

This lovely four-year-old mare caught my radar early in the spring carnival with two great wins at Caulfield and returns from a six-week break tomorrow in the last at Flemington. The freshener will have done wonders for her after an ordinary effort six weeks ago and should contend for the line.

Ashleigh ‘‘Punter’s Pal’’ Williamson

In the words of Linda ‘‘Chopper’’ Meech, I hope Thought Of That ‘‘gets beat’’ in tomorrow’s Group One Victoria Derby at Flemington. Shadow Hero’s victory in the Group One Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick three weeks ago looks even more irresistible given runner-up Castelvecchio ran second in last Saturday’s Cox Plate at Moonee Valley.I am backing the favourite to salute in tomorrow’s feature, then chasing some value in other events on the loaded nine-race card.

Bet one - Flemington R3, #11 Kavalmo - $10 win @ $11

Impressive last start maiden winner at Wyong from the Chris Waller stable. The fact Waller thinks this colt can make the huge rise in class to the $500,000 Carbine Club Stakes during the Flemington carnival is good enough for me to jump on.

Bet two - Flemington R4, #3 Haky - $10 win @ $6.50

Meech gave this European raider a strong push at Caulfield trackwork on Tuesday morning — not long before she was sensationally given the chop from riding Victoria Derby contender Thought Of That in favour of Mark Zahra. Haky ran third to strong Melbourne Cup chance Prince Of Arran in the Group Three Geelong Cup on Wednesday last week. I am tipping John Hammond’s gelding will win tomorrow’s Hotham Stakes and the last ticket into Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup. A ride in the great race would give Meech a boost after an emotionally difficult week.

Bet three - Flemington R5, #9 Pohutukawa - $10 win @ $7

This Godolphin mare was disappointing when running fourth as favourite in the Group Two Tristarc Stakes on Caulfield Cup day. Gets back to Flemington tomorrow, where she ran second in the Group Two Blazer Stakes two run ago and won at her only other start at the track. Top pick in a wide open Group One Empire Rose Stakes.

Bet four - Flemington R7 #1 Shadow Hero - $50 win @ $3.20

Often the big question when trying to assess the Victoria Derby field each year is: ‘‘Which horse will run the trip?’’ In the words of my old mate ‘‘Rockin’’ Ronnie Anderson, they will all run the trip, it is just a matter of choosing the horse that runs it the fastest. For the reasons outlined above, I am backing Shadow Hero to win a second straight Group One race.

Bet five - Flemington R8, #6 Fierce Impact - $20 win @ $7

Impressive last start winner of the Group One Toorak Handicap at Caulfield. Matthew Smith’s long-striding horse gave the impression he would go even better at Flemington’s long straight and wide expanses. $7 is a great price in a Group One Cantala Stakes that will offer value whichever runner you back.

Ronnie Anderson

Bet one - Flemington R5, #3 Aristia - $25 each way @ $15/$4.40

Ignore this EZRacing-trained mare’s recent figure form, she is low flying this campaign and has drawn the shortest way home here over the 1600m trip. Is an absolute lay down misere at the big odds and I can tell you after the spring carnival I have had so far I need the cash, because at the moment I am eating the dates off the calendar for dinner.