This week’s reports tell us the modelling around infection number forecasts was on the pessimistic side, and as a consequence the number of people catching COVID and requiring either treatment or hospitalisation has been less than predicted.
As a consequence we have seen numerous alterations to ‘roadmaps’ (apart from Western Australia).
This is sensible politics. All scientific modelling is just that … it is modelling – a prediction that is not exact.
So why don’t governments adopt this same approach to other scientific modelling and their responses as the need for a flexible approach becomes apparent?
Take the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, for example.
Modelling for this plan has been proven to be inaccurate, whether it’s the adverse impact of increasing flows (that damage the very environment they are supposed to protect) or the job losses from reduced economic activity in regions where productive water has been significantly reduced.
Report after report has told governments that they needed to change aspects of the Basin Plan. In other words, make it more flexible and adaptive, which is what they promised in the first place.
But unlike their approach to the pandemic, this essential flexibility continues to go missing.
The unfortunate reason is that amid the ‘green’ hysteria that this would bring to capital cities, from those who in reality have a political agenda not an environmental agenda, governments would be unable to effectively communicate the need for change.
Thus, it’s easier for them to adopt the line that the Basin Plan must be completed ‘in full and on time’, despite the environmental and economic damage it is causing and the $13 billion hit to taxpayers.
As a bonus for governments there is no political risk, especially for the Federal Coalition. It panders to those from whom it needs support in marginal city and South Australian seats, and has little risk of losing ‘blue ribbon’ seats in the regional areas that are being adversely affected.
Meanwhile, we are stuck with a failing Basin Plan that is likely to go down in history as one of our nation’s greatest policy disasters.
Yours etc
Laurie Beer
Mayrung, NSW